PolyScope
ScreenerCategoriesEventsLarge TradesWallets🐋 Top Whales⚡ Early MoversSignalsSmart MoneyPortfolioWatchlist🔔 Alerts

Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - The International Group Stage

● quote 424 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: about 6 hoursLiquidity: $1.1MOfficial 24h Vol: $1.7MEvent: Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - The International Group Stage
99.9¢
YES
7.0¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly16Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:176 trades$762.6K tracked11% 🐋source coverage 46%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 428 min agoofficial metadata 419 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$52.7K·3 wallets(1🐋)·$52.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLTeam Spirit (YES)$80.6K@ 100¢·0xa7e2…9e36

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$3.7K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$3.7K
6h
+$27.8K
tracked
$762.6K

3 verified profitable wallets: +$52.7K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 76% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 424 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 428 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 419 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-13 13:20 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.dotabuff.com
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Dota 2 Round 1 match between Team Spirit and Xtreme Gaming in the The International Group Stage, initially scheduled for August 13 at 1:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Team Spirit" if Team Spirit win the match against Xtreme Gaming. This market will resolve to "Xtreme Gaming" if Xtreme Gaming win the match against Team Spirit. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 11h ago
DEADLINE CHANGED · 12h ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xe16d…5e303 linked markets · $620.3K gross
0x2c33…05633 linked markets · $84.8K gross
0xedfc…b7b12 linked markets · $21.3K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

POSITION CHANGESELL YES@ 77.0¢9h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWSELL Xtreme Gaming@ 15.0¢10h ago
15m INVALIDATED -12.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE
DEADLINE POSITIONINGBUY Team Spirit@ 66.0¢11h ago
15m STALLED +3.0pp1h CONFIRMED +10.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE
DEADLINE POSITIONINGBUY Team Spirit@ 62.0¢11h ago
15m CONFIRMED +7.0pp1h CONFIRMED +14.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: NO DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $49 → $5 · 6s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$3.7K
6h+$27.8K
24h+$30.0K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h74.1¢▲ above by 25.8pp
VWAP 7d74.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$189.6K
90¢
$9
85¢
$70.1K
80¢
$1.0K
75¢
$1.1K
70¢
$6.1K
65¢
$43.6K
60¢
$450.9K
55¢
$1.1K
50¢
$3
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLTeam Spirit (YES)$25.0K@ 99.9¢0xdc40…89cf🐋—about 9 hours ago
SELLTeam Spirit (YES)$31.7K@ 99.9¢0xcd66…664f🐋—about 9 hours ago
SELLTeam Spirit (YES)$80.6K@ 99.9¢0xa7e2…9e36🐋—about 9 hours ago
SELLTeam Spirit (YES)$12.5K@ 99.9¢0x6304…e570🐋—about 9 hours ago
BUYTeam Spirit (YES)$19.5K@ 85.0¢
Anjun0x4337…8882
🐋—about 10 hours ago
BUYTeam Spirit (YES)$10.2K@ 85.0¢
Anjun0x4337…8882
🐋—about 10 hours ago
SELLXtreme Gaming (NO)$30.8K@ 12.0¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋—about 10 hours ago
SELLTeam Spirit (YES)$35.3K@ 63.0¢0x381b…4d74🐋—about 11 hours ago
SELLXtreme Gaming (NO)$25.3K@ 33.1¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋—about 12 hours ago
BUYTeam Spirit (YES)$29.5K@ 63.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 12 hours ago
BUYTeam Spirit (YES)$34.2K@ 61.0¢0x381b…4d74🐋—about 12 hours ago
BUYXtreme Gaming (NO)$79.3K@ 39.8¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋—about 12 hours ago
BUYTeam Spirit (YES)$20.0K@ 62.0¢0xe16d…5e30🐋—about 12 hours ago
BUYTeam Spirit (YES)$32.0K@ 62.0¢0xe16d…5e30🐋—about 12 hours ago
BUYXtreme Gaming (NO)$11.5K@ 38.0¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋—about 12 hours ago
BUYXtreme Gaming (NO)$45.2K@ 38.0¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋—about 12 hours ago
BUYTeam Spirit (YES)$14.6K@ 63.0¢0x6b60…edbe🐋—about 12 hours ago
BUYTeam Spirit (YES)$50.0K@ 63.0¢0xe16d…5e30🐋—about 12 hours ago
BUYTeam Spirit (YES)$10.0K@ 63.0¢0xe16d…5e30🐋—about 12 hours ago
BUYTeam Spirit (YES)$14.6K@ 63.0¢0x6b60…edbe🐋—about 12 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

DjdjdjekekekXtreme Gaming$144.2K
BUY VWAP 38.9¢·5 fills
0xe16d…5e30Team Spirit$118.0K
BUY VWAP 62.7¢·6 fills
0x2c33…0563Team Spirit$40.8K
BUY VWAP 66.6¢·4 fills
0x6b60…edbeTeam Spirit$39.0K
BUY VWAP 63.2¢·7 fills
0x381b…4d74Team Spirit$34.2K
BUY VWAP 61.0¢·1 fill
AnjunTeam Spirit$30.9K
BUY VWAP 84.0¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.