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Dota 2: BoomBoys vs OG (BO3) - The International Group Stage

● quote 649 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: about 11 hoursLiquidity: $57.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.3MEvent: Dota 2: BoomBoys vs OG (BO3) - The International Group Stage
99.9¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets84Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution23Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 79%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:130 trades$757.6K tracked12% 🐋source coverage 56%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 654 min agoofficial metadata 385 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$382.1K·3 wallets(2🐋)·$414.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYBoomBoys (YES)$364.5K@ 70¢·0x2c33…0563

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — MARKET STATUS RISK
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$2
6h
−$1.2K
tracked
$757.6K

3 verified profitable wallets: +$382.1K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 79% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 649 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 654 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 385 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-08-13 08:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.dotabuff.com
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Dota 2 Round 1 match between BoomBoys and OG in the The International Group Stage, initially scheduled for August 12 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "BoomBoys" if BoomBoys win the match against OG. This market will resolve to "OG" if OG win the match against BoomBoys. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Recent definition/status changes
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 6h ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x2c33…05632 linked markets · $384.7K gross
0xe16d…5e302 linked markets · $13.0K gross
0x08c2…c0232 linked markets · $11.8K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWSELL OG@ 26.0¢15h ago
15m STALLED +1.0pp1h CONFIRMED +10.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY OG@ 29.0¢16h ago
15m INVALIDATED -4.0pp1h INVALIDATED -4.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY BoomBoys@ 71.0¢16h ago
15m CONFIRMED +3.0pp1h CONFIRMED +3.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE
POSITION CHANGESELL BoomBoys@ 73.0¢16h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: YES UP 5.5pp · near-book depth $991 → $1.7K · 4s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$2
6h−$1.2K
24h+$508.6K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h74.2¢▲ above by 25.7pp
VWAP 7d74.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$86.4K
90¢
$19
85¢
$609
80¢
$0
75¢
$33.6K
70¢
$639.0K
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 70¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLBoomBoys (YES)$13.1K@ 99.9¢0x6b60…edbe🐋—about 12 hours ago
SELLBoomBoys (YES)$19.4K@ 99.9¢0x6b60…edbe🐋—about 12 hours ago
SELLBoomBoys (YES)$14.0K@ 99.9¢0xfae1…fdc1🐋—about 12 hours ago
SELLBoomBoys (YES)$15.4K@ 99.9¢0xcd66…664f🐋—about 13 hours ago
SELLOG (NO)$32.3K@ 27.0¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋—about 16 hours ago
SELLOG (NO)$19.7K@ 28.0¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋—about 16 hours ago
BUYBoomBoys (YES)$10.8K@ 72.0¢0xb272…5030🐋—about 17 hours ago
BUYBoomBoys (YES)$364.5K@ 70.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 17 hours ago
BUYBoomBoys (YES)$70.0K@ 70.0¢0xec98…afcd🐋—about 17 hours ago
BUYOG (NO)$12.0K@ 29.6¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋—about 17 hours ago
BUYBoomBoys (YES)$14.6K@ 73.0¢0x6b60…edbe🐋—about 17 hours ago
BUYBoomBoys (YES)$14.6K@ 73.0¢0x6b60…edbe🐋—about 17 hours ago
BUYBoomBoys (YES)$18.3K@ 73.0¢
iDARKenjoyer0xf68a…5b1b
🐋—about 17 hours ago
BUYBoomBoys (YES)$10.2K@ 73.0¢0xfae1…fdc1🐋—about 17 hours ago
BUYOG (NO)$10.8K@ 25.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 17 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x2c33…0563BoomBoys$367.5K
BUY VWAP 70.1¢·2 fills
0xec98…afcdBoomBoys$70.0K
BUY VWAP 70.0¢·1 fill
0x6b60…edbeBoomBoys$29.2K
BUY VWAP 73.0¢·2 fills
DjdjdjekekekOG$23.7K
BUY VWAP 28.9¢·4 fills
iDARKenjoyerBoomBoys$18.3K
BUY VWAP 73.0¢·1 fill
0x2c33…0563OG$16.1K
BUY VWAP 25.9¢·3 fills
zb8BoomBoys$12.4K
BUY VWAP 71.5¢·2 fills
0xb272…5030BoomBoys$10.8K
BUY VWAP 72.0¢·1 fill
0xfae1…fdc1BoomBoys$10.2K
BUY VWAP 73.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.