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Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-08-23?

Sports→Settlement: RESOLVEDLiquidity: $974.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $2.9MEvent: Elche CF vs. FC Barcelona
73.5¢
YES payout
26.5¢
NO payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:470 trades$1.6M tracked4% 🐋source coverage 56%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 505 min agoofficial metadata 496 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES · $76.0K net·13 wallets(2🐋)·$193.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLYES$410.9K@ 100¢·jjj1995

Historical decision record

Market resolved. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-08-23 19:30 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: https://www.laliga.com/
Outcome meaning

•If FC Barcelona wins, this market will resolve to "Yes".

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming game, scheduled for August 23, 2026 If FC Barcelona wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Recent definition/status changes
RESOLUTION STATUS CHANGED · 8h ago
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 8h ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
quavoo2 linked markets · $109.6K gross
swisstony3 linked markets · $91.3K gross
GoalLineGhost3 linked markets · $67.6K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY YES10h ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY YES10h ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY YES10h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 73.0¢11h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h CONFIRMED +22.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: YES DOWN 3.0pp · near-book depth $14.9K → $4.5K · 1s

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNO · $303.4K
6hYES · $394.4K
24hYES · $511.3K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current73.5¢
VWAP 24h84.8¢▼ below by 11.3pp
VWAP 7d84.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$646.7K
90¢
$16.4K
85¢
$82.7K
80¢
$33.2K
75¢
$42
70¢
← now
$842.8K
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 70¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLYES$18.2K@ 99.9¢
tennischamp0x8bfe…2d74
🐋—about 8 hours ago
SELLYES$410.9K@ 99.9¢
jjj19950x2ba6…644c
🐋—about 9 hours ago
BUYYES$39.0K@ 99.9¢0x2cc8…262b🐋—about 9 hours ago
BUYYES$50.0K@ 99.9¢
sleepy-panda0xa49b…4c40
🐋—about 9 hours ago
BUYYES$11.0K@ 99.9¢
alohaa0x02b4…7092
🐋—about 9 hours ago
BUYYES$11.4K@ 97.1¢
swisstony0x204f…5e14
🐋—about 9 hours ago
BUYYES$20.0K@ 88.0¢
kmak10x2114…c1bb
🐋—about 10 hours ago
BUYYES$24.0K@ 87.7¢
hurrican0x8718…5040
🐋—about 10 hours ago
BUYNO$15.1K@ 28.0¢
sulumos0x9db8…2eff
🐋—about 11 hours ago
BUYYES$13.8K@ 73.0¢0xe907…cff6🐋—about 11 hours ago
BUYYES$10.2K@ 73.0¢
quavoo0xdc41…dd7e
🐋—about 11 hours ago
BUYYES$14.5K@ 73.0¢
purplegatto0x032e…2a9e
🐋—about 11 hours ago
BUYYES$19.7K@ 73.0¢
ptrck70x96c2…5741
🐋—about 11 hours ago
BUYYES$304.4K@ 74.0¢
jjj19950x2ba6…644c
🐋—about 12 hours ago
BUYYES$13.5K@ 74.0¢
tennischamp0x8bfe…2d74
🐋—about 12 hours ago
BUYYES$19.8K@ 73.0¢
RegardedMoney0x5c3a…020b
🐋—about 12 hours ago
BUYYES$10.9K@ 73.0¢
purplegatto0x032e…2a9e
🐋—about 12 hours ago
BUYYES$16.0K@ 73.0¢
purplegatto0x032e…2a9e
🐋—about 12 hours ago
BUYYES$13.7K@ 72.0¢
purplegatto0x032e…2a9e
🐋—about 17 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

jjj1995Yes$304.4K
BUY VWAP 74.0¢·1 fill
quavooYes$109.6K
BUY VWAP 73.5¢·143 fills
purplegattoYes$105.5K
BUY VWAP 72.6¢·37 fills
swisstonyYes$73.3K
BUY VWAP 79.3¢·29 fills
GoalLineGhostYes$55.1K
BUY VWAP 82.6¢·19 fills
sleepy-pandaYes$50.0K
BUY VWAP 99.9¢·1 fill
0x2cc8…262bYes$39.0K
BUY VWAP 99.9¢·1 fill
UpTheBluesNo$30.9K
BUY VWAP 26.8¢·8 fills
kmak1Yes$26.4K
BUY VWAP 87.7¢·2 fills
hurricanYes$24.0K
BUY VWAP 87.7¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.