The Hundred, Women: Welsh Fire vs London Spirit

● quote 503 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $87.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $312.3KEvent: The Hundred, Women: Welsh Fire vs London Spirit
100.0¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly38Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets20Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution97Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 89%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:71 trades$180.9K tracked6% 🐋source coverage 58%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 508 min agoofficial metadata 507 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLWelsh Fire (YES)$54.1K@ 100¢·0xd6d9…2c2f

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$2.0K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$2.0K
6h
+$41.6K
tracked
$180.9K

1 verified profitable wallet: +$8.1K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 89% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 503 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 508 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 507 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-19 06:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the cricket match between Welsh Fire and London Spirit scheduled for August 12 2026 in The Hundred, Women. DLS/DRS, over-rate penalties, forfeit/walkover, or any other on-field ruling that leads the competition to declare a winner are treated as ordinary wins. If the match ends tied and the playing conditions provide an on-field tiebreak (e.g., Super Over), the winner determined by that tiebreak will be used for resolution. If the match ends tied and no on-field tiebreak is used or available under the playing conditions (e.g., group-stage ODI with no Super Over), the market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed/rescheduled, the market remains open until the listed fixture is completed. If the match is permanently canceled or abandoned or otherwise is completed without a winner, the market resolves 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Welsh Fire@ 94.0¢11h ago
15m INVALIDATED -7.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: NO DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $57$2.0K · 24s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$2.0K
6h+$41.6K
24h+$41.6K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h87.1¢▲ above by 12.8pp
VWAP 7d87.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$73.1K
90¢
$21.0K
85¢
$33.3K
80¢
$10.3K
75¢
$2.5K
70¢
$1.4K
65¢
$18.8K
60¢
$8.3K
55¢
$7.0K
50¢
$5.1K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLWelsh Fire (YES)$54.1K@ 99.9¢0xd6d9…2c2f🐋about 10 hours ago
BUYWelsh Fire (YES)$18.2K@ 94.0¢0xd6d9…2c2f🐋about 11 hours ago
BUYWelsh Fire (YES)$18.0K@ 89.0¢0xd6d9…2c2f🐋about 11 hours ago
BUYWelsh Fire (YES)$10.3K@ 69.0¢0xa4b7…6008🐋about 13 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xd6d9…2c2fWelsh Fire$48.9K
BUY VWAP 90.4¢·5 fills
0x6e02…d70aWelsh Fire$21.8K
BUY VWAP 71.1¢·16 fills
0xa4b7…6008Welsh Fire$15.6K
BUY VWAP 65.2¢·4 fills
02-Welsh Fire$10.8K
BUY VWAP 78.6¢·8 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.