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New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays

● quote 772 min ago
Sports→Closes: 6 daysLiquidity: $252.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $379.9KEvent: New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays
2.0¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection7Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%💡 5 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:171 trades$169.5K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 45%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 790 min agoofficial metadata 766 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$5.5K·5 wallets·$16.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNew York Yankees (YES)$25.2K@ 63¢·Feromont

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$12.7K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$12.7K
6h
+$47.0K
tracked
$169.5K

5 verified profitable wallets: +$5.5K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 76% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 772 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 790 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 766 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-22 19:07 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays, scheduled for August 15 at 3:07PM ET: This market will resolve to "New York Yankees" if the New York Yankees win the game. This market will resolve to "Toronto Blue Jays" if the Toronto Blue Jays win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x5268…135d2 linked markets · $8.8K gross
0xbca0…97052 linked markets · $7.2K gross
Sisyphus.2 linked markets · $1.4K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWSELL New York Yankees@ 17.0¢13h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY New York Yankees@ 63.0¢16h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h CONFIRMED +9.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: NO DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $94.8K → $108.8K · 62s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$12.7K
6h+$47.0K
24h+$55.8K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current2.0¢
VWAP 24h53.5¢▼ below by 51.5pp
VWAP 7d53.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$32
70¢
$10.8K
65¢
$18.9K
60¢
$89.6K
55¢
$14.4K
50¢
$1.2K
45¢
$0
40¢
$2.8K
35¢
$360
30¢
$173
25¢
$10.1K
20¢
$1.6K
15¢
$2.0K
10¢
$14.3K
5¢
$66
0¢
← now
$5.2K

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLNew York Yankees (YES)$10.0K@ 25.0¢
Feromont0xabb8…bba3
🐋—about 14 hours ago
BUYNew York Yankees (YES)$25.2K@ 63.0¢
Feromont0xabb8…bba3
🐋—about 16 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

FeromontNew York Yankees$25.2K
BUY VWAP 63.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.