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National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Arthur Fils

● quote 140 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $262.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.1MEvent: National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Arthur Fils
56.5¢
YES
43.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection7Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets4Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 77%💡 5 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:146 trades$533.6K tracked9% 🐋source coverage 47%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 153 min agoofficial metadata 143 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$13.9K·5 wallets(3🐋)·$303.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYArthur Fils (NO)$82.6K@ 44¢·AV23IUa

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$36.1K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$36.1K
6h
−$36.2K
tracked
$533.6K

5 verified profitable wallets: +$13.9K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 77% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 140 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 153 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 143 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-18 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Rafael Jodar and Arthur Fils in the National Bank Open, originally scheduled for August 11, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Rafael Jodar' if Rafael Jodar advances against Arthur Fils. This market will resolve to 'Arthur Fils' if Arthur Fils advances against Rafael Jodar. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWSELL Arthur Fils@ 42.0¢9h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -2.0pp
LARGE FLOWSELL Arthur Fils@ 42.0¢10h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp
ACCUMULATIONBUY Rafael Jodar@ 57.0¢11h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp6h STALLED +0.0pp
POSITION CHANGEBUY Arthur Fils@ 45.0¢13h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp6h INVALIDATED -3.0pp

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$36.1K
6h−$36.2K
24h+$86.4K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current56.5¢
VWAP 24h56.3¢▲ above by 0.2pp
VWAP 7d56.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
← now
$484.0K
50¢
$63.4K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLRafael Jodar (YES)$19.8K@ 57.0¢
Supremeleader750x5dab…22e1
🐋—about 3 hours ago
SELLRafael Jodar (YES)$16.2K@ 57.0¢
Supremeleader750x5dab…22e1
🐋—about 3 hours ago
SELLArthur Fils (NO)$38.3K@ 41.6¢
AV23IUa0xdb85…152f
🐋—about 9 hours ago
SELLArthur Fils (NO)$35.5K@ 41.3¢
AV23IUa0xdb85…152f
🐋—about 11 hours ago
BUYRafael Jodar (YES)$19.5K@ 56.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 13 hours ago
BUYArthur Fils (NO)$34.6K@ 44.0¢
AV23IUa0xdb85…152f
🐋—about 13 hours ago
BUYRafael Jodar (YES)$56.0K@ 56.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 13 hours ago
BUYArthur Fils (NO)$82.6K@ 44.0¢
AV23IUa0xdb85…152f
🐋—about 13 hours ago
BUYRafael Jodar (YES)$17.1K@ 56.7¢0x760f…326a🐋—about 13 hours ago
BUYRafael Jodar (YES)$10.1K@ 56.0¢
tennischamp0x8bfe…2d74
🐋—about 14 hours ago
BUYRafael Jodar (YES)$16.5K@ 55.0¢
Painfulvoid0xd696…8a49
🐋—about 14 hours ago
BUYRafael Jodar (YES)$15.0K@ 55.0¢
Marcoli0xdbbb…05a8
🐋—about 14 hours ago
BUYArthur Fils (NO)$26.4K@ 46.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 20 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

AV23IUaArthur Fils$117.2K
BUY VWAP 44.0¢·2 fills
0x2c33…0563Rafael Jodar$79.1K
BUY VWAP 56.0¢·3 fills
PainfulvoidRafael Jodar$31.1K
BUY VWAP 55.1¢·3 fills
ferrariChampions2026Arthur Fils$26.4K
BUY VWAP 46.0¢·1 fill
0x760f…326aRafael Jodar$17.1K
BUY VWAP 56.7¢·1 fill
MarcoliRafael Jodar$17.0K
BUY VWAP 54.6¢·2 fills
tennischampRafael Jodar$10.1K
BUY VWAP 56.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.