Brownsburg: Colton Smith vs Felix Gill

● quote 508 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 5 daysLiquidity: $69.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $122.4KEvent: Brownsburg: Colton Smith vs Felix Gill
59.5¢
YES
40.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly5Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution88Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 70%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:51 trades$25.5K trackedsource coverage 21%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 518 min agoofficial metadata 509 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYFelix Gill (NO)$4.3K@ 41¢·0x41b4…10da

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$47
6h
+$517
tracked
$25.5K

1 verified profitable wallet: +$1.1K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 70% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 508 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 518 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 509 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-17 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Colton Smith and Felix Gill in the Brownsburg, originally scheduled for August 10, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Colton Smith' if Colton Smith advances against Felix Gill. This market will resolve to 'Felix Gill' if Felix Gill advances against Colton Smith. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: YES DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $76.9K$38.9K · 22s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$47
6h+$517
24h+$8.6K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current59.5¢
VWAP 24h59.3¢▲ above by 0.2pp
VWAP 7d59.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$345
65¢
$2.6K
60¢
$9.2K
55¢
← now
$11.2K
50¢
$7.9K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity