Astana: Semen Pankin vs Dominik Palan

● quote 46 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $656.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $229.0KEvent: Astana: Semen Pankin vs Dominik Palan
100.0¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection8Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 85%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:99 trades$90.0K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 39%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 51 min agoofficial metadata 47 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$31.8K·3 wallets(1🐋)·$31.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYSemen Pankin (YES)$21.5K@ 89¢·Djdjdjekekek

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$7.6K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$7.6K
6h
+$21.7K
tracked
$90.0K

3 verified profitable wallets: +$31.8K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 85% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +10.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 46 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 51 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 47 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-17 05:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Semen Pankin and Dominik Palan in the Astana, originally scheduled for August 10, 2026 at 1:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Semen Pankin' if Semen Pankin advances against Dominik Palan. This market will resolve to 'Dominik Palan' if Dominik Palan advances against Semen Pankin. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Semen Pankin@ 90.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -6.0pp
Latest book event: YES DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $64.5K$59.8K · 63s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$7.6K
6h+$21.7K
24h+$21.7K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h78.7¢▲ above by 21.3pp
VWAP 7d78.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$22.6K
90¢
$2.5K
85¢
$23.7K
80¢
$70
75¢
$151
70¢
$266
65¢
$2.2K
60¢
$31.7K
55¢
$6.8K
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYSemen Pankin (YES)$10.0K@ 98.7¢0x0c4c…d70d🐋about 1 hour ago
BUYSemen Pankin (YES)$21.5K@ 89.0¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋about 2 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

DjdjdjekekekSemen Pankin$21.5K
BUY VWAP 89.0¢·1 fill
0x5f65…2036Dominik Palan$12.8K
BUY VWAP 40.9¢·4 fills
0x0c4c…d70dSemen Pankin$10.0K
BUY VWAP 98.7¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.