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Astana: Masamichi Imamura vs Antoine Ghibaudo

● quote 11 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $248.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $96.0KEvent: Astana: Masamichi Imamura vs Antoine Ghibaudo
99.9¢
YES
2.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection30Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 56%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:32 trades$21.3K trackedsource coverage 22%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 43 min agoofficial metadata 8 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAntoine Ghibaudo (NO)$7.9K@ 81¢·0x6982…a165

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$6.4K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$6.4K
6h
+$562
tracked
$21.3K

1 verified profitable wallet: +$3.3K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 56% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 11 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 43 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-17 05:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Masamichi Imamura and Antoine Ghibaudo in the Astana, originally scheduled for August 10, 2026 at 1:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Masamichi Imamura' if Masamichi Imamura advances against Antoine Ghibaudo. This market will resolve to 'Antoine Ghibaudo' if Antoine Ghibaudo advances against Masamichi Imamura. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: YES UP 2.5pp · near-book depth $110.8K → $58.8K · 19s
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$6.4K
6h+$562
24h+$562

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h49.3¢▲ above by 50.6pp
VWAP 7d49.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$6.2K
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$253
75¢
$70
70¢
$65
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$1.3K
45¢
$2.3K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$3.3K
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$7.9K
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 15¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity