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Istanbul 2: Lucas Poullain vs Ilia Simakin

UncategorizedSettlement: Lucas PoullainLiquidity: $402.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $160.3KEvent: Istanbul 2: Lucas Poullain vs Ilia Simakin
100.0¢
Lucas Poullain payout
0.0¢
Ilia Simakin payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYIlia Simakin$3.9K@ 57¢·xabidaking

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Lucas Poullain. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-08-16 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Lucas Poullain and Ilia Simakin in the Istanbul 2, originally scheduled for August 9, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Lucas Poullain' if Lucas Poullain advances against Ilia Simakin. This market will resolve to 'Ilia Simakin' if Ilia Simakin advances against Lucas Poullain. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Lucas Poullain; negative values favor Ilia Simakin. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hIlia Simakin · $4.3K
6hIlia Simakin · $5.6K
24hIlia Simakin · $5.6K

Lucas Poullain price VWAP

Volume-weighted Lucas Poullain price. Ilia Simakin fills are converted to the complementary Lucas Poullain probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h70.3¢▲ above by 29.7pp
VWAP 7d70.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Lucas Poullain price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$7.3K
90¢
$0
85¢
$42
80¢
$196
75¢
$9
70¢
$2.2K
65¢
$186
60¢
$269
55¢
$325
50¢
$19
45¢
$2
40¢
$4.1K
35¢
$1.6K
30¢
$1.4K
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity