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National Bank Open: Alexandra Eala vs Belinda Bencic

● quote 5299 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 3 daysLiquidity: $344.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.2MEvent: National Bank Open: Alexandra Eala vs Belinda Bencic
0.1¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection21Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets3Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%💡 7 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $90.2K·7 wallets(6🐋)·$216.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAlexandra Eala (YES)$75.3K@ 49¢·Djdjdjekekek

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$109.7K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$109.7K
6h
−$7.8K
tracked
$531.5K

7 verified profitable wallets: −$90.2K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 76% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Only 0 tracked trades / 171 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Executable quote is 5299 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 5305 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-16 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Alexandra Eala and Belinda Bencic in the National Bank Open, originally scheduled for August 9, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alexandra Eala' if Alexandra Eala advances against Belinda Bencic. This market will resolve to 'Belinda Bencic' if Belinda Bencic advances against Alexandra Eala. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Belinda Bencic@ 98.6¢4d ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
ANTI CHASEBUY Alexandra Eala4d ago
Outcome checks pending
POSITION CHANGEBUY Belinda Bencic@ 52.0¢4d ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h CONFIRMED +15.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Alexandra Eala@ 49.0¢4d ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h INVALIDATED -17.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$109.7K
6h−$7.8K
24h−$24.0K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h28.2¢▼ below by 28.1pp
VWAP 7d28.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$7.5K
45¢
$244.5K
40¢
$10.1K
35¢
$8.4K
30¢
$27.1K
25¢
$18.5K
20¢
$1.5K
15¢
$6.7K
10¢
$11.2K
5¢
$3.5K
0¢
← now
$192.5K

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLBelinda Bencic (NO)$34.4K@ 99.9¢0xd6d9…2c2f🐋—4 days ago
BUYBelinda Bencic (NO)$12.5K@ 99.9¢
backback0x996a…e3cc
🐋—4 days ago
BUYBelinda Bencic (NO)$11.3K@ 98.0¢0x9a3f…914a🐋—4 days ago
BUYBelinda Bencic (NO)$11.3K@ 97.9¢
swisstony0x204f…5e14
🐋—4 days ago
BUYBelinda Bencic (NO)$11.3K@ 97.9¢
swisstony0x204f…5e14
🐋—4 days ago
BUYBelinda Bencic (NO)$11.3K@ 97.8¢
swisstony0x204f…5e14
🐋—4 days ago
BUYBelinda Bencic (NO)$11.2K@ 97.4¢
swisstony0x204f…5e14
🐋—4 days ago
BUYBelinda Bencic (NO)$11.2K@ 97.4¢
swisstony0x204f…5e14
🐋—4 days ago
BUYBelinda Bencic (NO)$10.5K@ 97.5¢
swisstony0x204f…5e14
🐋—4 days ago
BUYBelinda Bencic (NO)$11.2K@ 96.7¢
swisstony0x204f…5e14
🐋—4 days ago
BUYBelinda Bencic (NO)$12.9K@ 65.2¢
RN10x2005…75ea
🐋—4 days ago
BUYAlexandra Eala (YES)$75.3K@ 49.0¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋—4 days ago
BUYBelinda Bencic (NO)$16.6K@ 52.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—4 days ago
BUYAlexandra Eala (YES)$13.4K@ 48.0¢
AV23IUa0xdb85…152f
🐋—4 days ago
BUYAlexandra Eala (YES)$21.8K@ 47.0¢0x076d…8d4c🐋—4 days ago
BUYBelinda Bencic (NO)$12.4K@ 51.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—4 days ago
BUYAlexandra Eala (YES)$19.9K@ 49.0¢
AV23IUa0xdb85…152f
🐋—4 days ago
BUYBelinda Bencic (NO)$11.6K@ 52.0¢0x0cdf…ec9e🐋—5 days ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

swisstonyBelinda Bencic$108.2K
BUY VWAP 94.6¢·16 fills
DjdjdjekekekAlexandra Eala$81.9K
BUY VWAP 48.9¢·2 fills
AV23IUaAlexandra Eala$33.3K
BUY VWAP 48.6¢·2 fills
0x076d…8d4cAlexandra Eala$25.1K
BUY VWAP 46.9¢·2 fills
0x5268…135dBelinda Bencic$21.3K
BUY VWAP 85.7¢·5 fills
backbackBelinda Bencic$20.0K
BUY VWAP 98.8¢·3 fills
0x2c33…0563Belinda Bencic$16.6K
BUY VWAP 52.0¢·1 fill
0x0cdf…ec9eBelinda Bencic$13.6K
BUY VWAP 52.3¢·2 fills
0x0353…c2ffAlexandra Eala$13.4K
BUY VWAP 44.7¢·3 fills
RN1Belinda Bencic$13.1K
BUY VWAP 65.2¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.