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Will Coventry City FC win on 2026-08-21?

● quote 26s ago
Sports→Closes: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $1.0MOfficial 24h Vol: $158.0KEvent: Arsenal FC vs. Coventry City FC
5.5¢
YES
94.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly62Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection2Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority37Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 82%
24h sample:15 trades$104.4K tracked20% 🐋source coverage 66%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 9 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$57.6K@ 96¢·0F62

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$1.8K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$1.8K
6h
−$4.8K
tracked
$104.4K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 82% · priority 37

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Less than 2h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-21 19:00 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: https://www.premierleague.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming game, scheduled for August 21, 2026 If Coventry City FC wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 96.0¢11h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp6h STALLED -2.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 95.0¢17h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp6h STALLED +0.0pp

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$1.8K
6h−$4.8K
24h−$104.1K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current5.5¢
VWAP 24h4.4¢▲ above by 1.1pp
VWAP 7d4.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
← now
$43.1K
0¢
$64.7K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYNO$57.6K@ 96.0¢
0F620xccd8…f4de
🐋—about 11 hours ago
BUYNO$18.6K@ 95.0¢
0F620xccd8…f4de
🐋—about 18 hours ago
BUYNO$12.0K@ 95.0¢
0F620xccd8…f4de
🐋—about 19 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0F62No$99.3K
BUY VWAP 95.6¢·5 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.