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Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?

● quote 16s ago
UncategorizedCloses: 1 dayLiquidity: $31.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $141.9KEvent: Kai and Speed beat Minecraft challenge by...?
63.6¢
YES
36.4¢
NO
2.9¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection25Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets32Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution66Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority51Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 73%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:41 trades$42.8K trackedsource coverage 30%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 6 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$7.5K·4 wallets·$23.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$5.3K@ 60¢·AllByMyseIf

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$10.9K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$10.9K
6h
+$13.6K
tracked
$42.8K

4 verified profitable wallets: +$7.5K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
2.9¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 73% · priority 51

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-13 23:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sm9Af2DPsqs
Read full resolution rules

Kai Cenat and IShowSpeed are scheduled to stream a hardcore Minecraft marathon on August 7, 2026, at 5:00 PM ET. They will attempt a challenge to defeat the Ender Dragon, the Wither, the Warden, and the Elder Guardian in a hardcore Minecraft world on Java Edition, on the same seed, without either player dying in-game. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kai and Speed complete the aforementioned challenge live on stream between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". All four objectives must be completed on the same seed and in the same world. Progress across multiple seeds will not be combined. Any successful attempt within the specified timeframe will qualify; however, no challenge progress may be carried over following an in-game death and the beginning of a new attempt. Practice or casual worlds not set to Hardcore will not count. No event will count if it occurs while the player in question is in Creative or Spectator mode, or if it results from the use of commands, cheats, or any external tool to spawn entities, alter the world, or deal damage. Only completion of the challenge as defined above will qualify. If Kai and Speed modify the rules of the challenge at any point, including by removing an objective, adding a player, or playing outside of Hardcore mode, any completion achieved under the modified rules will not count toward resolution. Only events occurring while at least one of the two players is broadcasting the challenge live will count. Footage of off-stream or previously recorded attempts will not qualify. If the challenge is cancelled by, abandoned before completion by, or delayed to a point after the specified date, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be footage from the official broadcasts of the challenge on Kai Cenat's and IShowSpeed's official broadcasts on YouTube and Twitch.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Parz1vaI4 linked markets · $66.3K gross
0x6e13…a8012 linked markets · $53.2K gross
0x6bab…12922 linked markets · $32.1K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: NO DOWN 8.6pp · near-book depth $266 → $138 · 1s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$10.9K
6h+$13.6K
24h+$8.3K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current63.6¢
VWAP 24h43.2¢▲ above by 20.5pp
VWAP 7d38.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$324
60¢
← now
$5.3K
55¢
$19.6K
50¢
$1.6K
45¢
$5
40¢
$0
35¢
$4.0K
30¢
$0
25¢
$2.4K
20¢
$1.3K
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$2.9K
0¢
$11.0K

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity

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Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 16?
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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.