LoL: RED Canids vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner

● quote 837 min ago
SportsCloses: about 13 hoursLiquidity: $530.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $238.9KEvent: LoL: RED Canids vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season
99.9¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets25Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 57%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:102 trades$65.5K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 27%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 925 min agoofficial metadata 828 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $15.8K·2 wallets(1🐋)·$42.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLRED Canids (YES)$20.5K@ 100¢·5e46h

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$21.1K
tracked
$65.5K

2 verified profitable wallets: −$15.8K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 57% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 837 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 925 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 828 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-08 20:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL match between RED Canids and paiN Gaming in the CBLOL Regular Season, initially scheduled for August 8 at 12:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "RED Canids" if RED Canids win Game 1 against paiN Gaming. This market will resolve to "paiN Gaming" if paiN Gaming win Game 1 against RED Canids. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Sunshine.Smile2 linked markets · $7.9K gross
0xf496…fe792 linked markets · $5.6K gross
0xf201…527e2 linked markets · $5.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: NO DOWN 5.0pp · near-book depth $367$663 · 3s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$0
6h$21.1K
24h$21.1K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h80.3¢▲ above by 19.6pp
VWAP 7d80.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$39.2K
90¢
$3.1K
85¢
$69
80¢
$5
75¢
$0
70¢
$1.3K
65¢
$0
60¢
$2
55¢
$74
50¢
$2.6K
45¢
$3.3K
40¢
$14.7K
35¢
$1.1K
30¢
$104
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLRED Canids (YES)$20.5K@ 99.9¢
5e46h0xd487…053e
🐋about 17 hours ago
BUYRED Canids (YES)$13.2K@ 98.4¢
5e46h0xd487…053e
🐋about 17 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

5e46hRED Canids$13.2K
BUY VWAP 98.4¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.