Athletics vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5

● quote 604 min ago
SportsCloses: about 13 hoursLiquidity: $216.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $321.1KEvent: Athletics vs. Boston Red Sox
99.9¢
YES
52.7¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly6Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets77Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 59%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:28 trades$112.0K tracked11% 🐋source coverage 35%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 643 min agoofficial metadata 590 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$12.4K·3 wallets(1🐋)·$16.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYOver (YES)$36.9K@ 55¢·0x5e94…5ba1

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$128
6h
+$123
tracked
$112.0K

3 verified profitable wallets: +$12.4K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 59% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 604 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 643 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 590 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-08 20:10 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Athletics and Boston Red Sox, scheduled for August 8 at 4:10 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if the Athletics and Boston Red Sox combine to score 9 or more runs in this game. If the combined total is less than 9, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x5e94…5ba12 linked markets · $81.0K gross
0x5268…135d5 linked markets · $76.5K gross
SDTrading2 linked markets · $45.3K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Over@ 56.0¢16h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Over@ 56.0¢17h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: YES UP 15.8pp · near-book depth $5$37 · 2s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$128
6h+$123
24h+$92.4K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h55.7¢▲ above by 44.2pp
VWAP 7d55.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$19
90¢
$15
85¢
$134
80¢
$13
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$111.8K
50¢
$11
45¢
$19
40¢
$3
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYOver (YES)$29.6K@ 56.0¢0x5e94…5ba1🐋about 16 hours ago
BUYOver (YES)$36.9K@ 55.0¢0x5e94…5ba1🐋about 16 hours ago
BUYOver (YES)$14.2K@ 56.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋about 17 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
26.5¢$867.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs LNG Esports - Game 1 Winner
100.0¢$549.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?
0.1¢$430.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals?
4.5¢$344.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs EYEBALLERS (BO3) - Esports World Cup Open Qualifier Play-Ins
49.5¢$316.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: Dplus KIA vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group
39.5¢$315.6Kpriority58Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs Sashi Esport (BO3) - Esports World Cup Open Qualifier Play-Ins
54.5¢$279.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: Dplus KIA vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner
12.5¢$273.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x5e94…5ba1Over$66.5K
BUY VWAP 55.4¢·2 fills
0x5268…135dOver$21.4K
BUY VWAP 56.0¢·4 fills
BUY VWAP 56.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.