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Lions vs. Bills

Sports→Settlement: BillsLiquidity: $6.9MOfficial 24h Vol: $9.1MEvent: Lions vs. Bills
0.0¢
Lions payout
100.0¢
Bills payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:1774 trades$6.0M tracked3% 🐋source coverage 66%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 449 min agoofficial metadata 437 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Bills · $569.1K net·34 wallets(6🐋)·$655.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYBills$2.0M@ 70¢·halvanicus

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Bills. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-09-18 00:15 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•If Lions wins, the market will resolve to "Lions".

•If Bills wins, the market will resolve to "Bills".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 17 at 8:15PM ET: If Lions wins, the market will resolve to "Lions". If Bills wins, the market will resolve to "Bills". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely or ends in a tie, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x2c33…05635 linked markets · $515.9K gross
Herdonia4 linked markets · $273.6K gross
TheMonaLisaCode4 linked markets · $113.6K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

POSITION CHANGEBUY Bills@ 94.0¢9h ago
15m STALLED -3.0pp1h CONFIRMED +4.4pp6h UNAVAILABLE
ACCUMULATIONBUY Bills@ 70.0¢11h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h CONFIRMED +23.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Bills@ 70.0¢11h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h CONFIRMED +22.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE
LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY Bills@ 70.0¢13h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Lions; negative values favor Bills. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hBills · $36.2K
6hBills · $741.3K
24hBills · $5.3M

Lions price VWAP

Volume-weighted Lions price. Bills fills are converted to the complementary Lions probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.0¢
VWAP 24h26.0¢▼ below by 26.0pp
VWAP 7d26.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Lions price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$2.1M
25¢
$3.1M
20¢
$22.4K
15¢
$12.2K
10¢
$52.4K
5¢
$427.0K
0¢
← now
$366.3K

VPOC = 25¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLBills$85.6K@ 99.9¢
nuttypoo0xa1e6…e1c2
🐋—about 8 hours ago
SELLBills$16.1K@ 99.9¢
w1n3r0x30ae…4318
🐋—about 8 hours ago
BUYBills$111.0K@ 99.9¢
TheMonaLisaCode0xcab7…9d0a
🐋—about 8 hours ago
BUYBills$17.1K@ 98.0¢
0F620xccd8…f4de
🐋—about 8 hours ago
BUYBills$11.2K@ 96.7¢
0F620xccd8…f4de
🐋—about 8 hours ago
BUYBills$26.4K@ 93.9¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 8 hours ago
BUYBills$23.2K@ 93.5¢
0F620xccd8…f4de
🐋—about 8 hours ago
BUYBills$44.7K@ 96.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 9 hours ago
BUYBills$204.5K@ 94.0¢
ethanaz0xf28e…cab2
🐋—about 10 hours ago
BUYBills$11.1K@ 95.0¢
BlueBase-5680x6c43…fb9b
🐋—about 10 hours ago
BUYBills$22.6K@ 93.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 10 hours ago
BUYBills$97.2K@ 75.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 11 hours ago
BUYBills$11.4K@ 70.0¢
wr0ngw4yb3tt0r0x224a…a3d5
🐋—about 11 hours ago
BUYLions$15.5K@ 31.0¢
wan1230xde7b…5f4b
🐋—about 11 hours ago
BUYBills$10.0K@ 70.0¢
Kosherlocks0x8239…d9a3
🐋—about 11 hours ago
BUYBills$71.6K@ 70.0¢
Kosherlocks0x8239…d9a3
🐋—about 11 hours ago
BUYBills$34.8K@ 70.0¢
martingaleking0x52f5…5e8a
🐋—about 12 hours ago
BUYBills$12.1K@ 70.0¢
Kosherlocks0x8239…d9a3
🐋—about 13 hours ago
BUYBills$196.4K@ 70.0¢
halvanicus0x63cf…e4d0
🐋—about 14 hours ago
BUYBills$23.2K@ 70.0¢
DeadliestCatch0x0ced…62cb
🐋—about 14 hours ago
BUYLions$10.0K@ 31.0¢0xf559…f462🐋—about 15 hours ago
BUYBills$19.9K@ 70.0¢
jaytee1580xa2c9…2c23
🐋—about 15 hours ago
BUYBills$142.3K@ 70.0¢
kindar0x369f…873e
🐋—about 15 hours ago
BUYLions$16.1K@ 31.0¢
wigglew0xc96e…f1f9
🐋—about 15 hours ago
BUYLions$11.5K@ 31.0¢
jdfngkdjfnfd0x6f65…172c
🐋—about 15 hours ago
BUYBills$692.2K@ 70.0¢
kindar0x369f…873e
🐋—about 15 hours ago
BUYLions$11.5K@ 31.0¢
VibeDoter0xe4a7…dc87
🐋—about 15 hours ago
BUYBills$32.1K@ 70.0¢
halvanicus0x63cf…e4d0
🐋—about 15 hours ago
BUYBills$53.8K@ 72.0¢
Herdonia0xd106…c79c
🐋—about 15 hours ago
BUYBills$17.7K@ 72.0¢
Herdonia0xd106…c79c
🐋—about 15 hours ago
BUYBills$34.5K@ 71.9¢
Herdonia0xd106…c79c
🐋—about 15 hours ago
BUYBills$56.5K@ 69.0¢
halvanicus0x63cf…e4d0
🐋—about 15 hours ago
BUYBills$356.5K@ 69.9¢
halvanicus0x63cf…e4d0
🐋—about 15 hours ago
BUYBills$67.8K@ 71.0¢
Herdonia0xd106…c79c
🐋—about 15 hours ago
BUYBills$22.8K@ 72.0¢
Herdonia0xd106…c79c
🐋—about 15 hours ago
BUYBills$2.0M@ 70.4¢
halvanicus0x63cf…e4d0
🐋—about 15 hours ago
BUYBills$698.7K@ 71.0¢
halvanicus0x63cf…e4d0
🐋—about 15 hours ago
BUYBills$20.2K@ 71.0¢
Herdonia0xd106…c79c
🐋—about 15 hours ago
BUYBills$28.0K@ 71.8¢
Herdonia0xd106…c79c
🐋—about 15 hours ago
BUYBills$22.8K@ 72.0¢
Herdonia0xd106…c79c
🐋—about 15 hours ago
BUYBills$54.6K@ 69.0¢
nuttypoo0xa1e6…e1c2
🐋—about 15 hours ago
BUYBills$14.2K@ 69.0¢
Pwaddler0x1d1a…0df6
🐋—about 15 hours ago
BUYBills$10.0K@ 69.0¢0x248e…0b3b🐋—about 16 hours ago
BUYBills$12.8K@ 68.0¢
weflyhigh0x03e8…1697
🐋—about 21 hours ago
BUYBills$11.8K@ 68.0¢
mooseborzoi0x84cf…2f63
🐋—about 21 hours ago
BUYBills$18.2K@ 68.0¢0x076d…8d4c🐋—1 day ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

halvanicusBills$3.3M
BUY VWAP 70.4¢·6 fills
kindarBills$834.4K
BUY VWAP 70.0¢·2 fills
HerdoniaBills$267.8K
BUY VWAP 71.6¢·8 fills
ethanazBills$204.5K
BUY VWAP 94.0¢·1 fill
0x2c33…0563Bills$168.4K
BUY VWAP 82.4¢·4 fills
TheMonaLisaCodeBills$111.1K
BUY VWAP 99.9¢·2 fills
KosherlocksBills$93.7K
BUY VWAP 70.0¢·3 fills
nuttypooBills$59.1K
BUY VWAP 69.0¢·2 fills
0F62Bills$51.5K
BUY VWAP 95.6¢·3 fills
martingalekingBills$34.8K
BUY VWAP 70.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.