Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays

● quote 1 min ago
SportsCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $204.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.1MEvent: Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays
10.2¢
YES
89.8¢
NO
0.7¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection13Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets38Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority57Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 86%💡 5 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:222 trades$515.4K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 46%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 6 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$60.8K·5 wallets(2🐋)·$160.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYToronto Blue Jays (NO)$126.0K@ 42¢·mentionmarket

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW YES SETUP
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$67.8K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$67.8K
6h
+$28.9K
tracked
$515.4K

5 verified profitable wallets: +$60.8K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.7¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 86% · priority 57

Since latest large flow: -36.5pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-19 23:07 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Boston Red Sox and Toronto Blue Jays, scheduled for August 12 at 7:07PM ET: This market will resolve to "Boston Red Sox" if the Boston Red Sox win the game. This market will resolve to "Toronto Blue Jays" if the Toronto Blue Jays win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x5268…135d2 linked markets · $62.0K gross
0xbca0…97052 linked markets · $10.7K gross
0x1b0f…b7ae2 linked markets · $234 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Boston Red Sox@ 47.0¢18m ago
Outcome checks pending
WHALE FOLLOW THROUGHBUY Boston Red Sox@ 58.0¢18m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Toronto Blue Jays@ 50.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED +1.0pp1h CONFIRMED +49.1pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Boston Red Sox@ 53.0¢1h ago
15m INVALIDATED -5.0pp1h INVALIDATED -52.3pp
Latest book event: NO UP 7.5pp · near-book depth $103$137 · 1s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$67.8K
6h+$28.9K
24h+$30.2K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current10.2¢
VWAP 24h54.3¢▼ below by 44.1pp
VWAP 7d54.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$212.1K
50¢
$129.0K
45¢
$13.2K
40¢
$13.2K
35¢
$11.2K
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
← now
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYBoston Red Sox (YES)$10.6K@ 53.0¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYBoston Red Sox (YES)$97.1K@ 54.7¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYToronto Blue Jays (NO)$126.0K@ 42.0¢
mentionmarket0xc3ac…b964
🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYToronto Blue Jays (NO)$10.7K@ 42.0¢
curie0xd1ed…d7cb
🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYToronto Blue Jays (NO)$10.7K@ 42.0¢
curie0xd1ed…d7cb
🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYToronto Blue Jays (NO)$11.1K@ 60.0¢
wr0ngw4yb3tt0r0x224a…a3d5
🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYBoston Red Sox (YES)$33.2K@ 55.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

mentionmarketToronto Blue Jays$126.0K
BUY VWAP 42.0¢·1 fill
DjdjdjekekekBoston Red Sox$108.8K
BUY VWAP 54.5¢·3 fills
0x3dfb…abafBoston Red Sox$33.2K
BUY VWAP 55.0¢·1 fill
curieToronto Blue Jays$21.4K
BUY VWAP 42.0¢·2 fills
wr0ngw4yb3tt0rToronto Blue Jays$16.2K
BUY VWAP 57.1¢·3 fills
0x5268…135dBoston Red Sox$14.4K
BUY VWAP 47.9¢·5 fills
RN1Toronto Blue Jays$13.5K
BUY VWAP 42.3¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.