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National Bank Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Shuai Zhang

● quote 694 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $53.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $67.6KEvent: National Bank Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Shuai Zhang
93.5¢
YES
6.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution85Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 59%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:4 trades$25.1K tracked25% 🐋source coverage 37%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 819 min agoofficial metadata 694 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAryna Sabalenka (YES)$25.1K@ 94¢·0F62

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$25.1K
tracked
$25.1K

1 verified profitable wallet: −$1 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 59% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 694 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 819 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 694 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
climax
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-13 23:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Aryna Sabalenka and Shuai Zhang in the National Bank Open, originally scheduled for August 6, 2026 at 7:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Aryna Sabalenka' if Aryna Sabalenka advances against Shuai Zhang. This market will resolve to 'Shuai Zhang' if Shuai Zhang advances against Aryna Sabalenka. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Aryna Sabalenka@ 94.0¢14h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.climax

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$0
6h+$25.1K
24h+$25.1K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current93.5¢
VWAP 24h94.0¢▼ below by 0.5pp
VWAP 7d94.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
← now
$25.1K
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 90¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYAryna Sabalenka (YES)$25.1K@ 94.0¢
0F620xccd8…f4de
🐋—about 16 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0F62Aryna Sabalenka$25.1K
BUY VWAP 94.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.