Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 12?

● quote 7 min ago

Crypto→Closes: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $28.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $135.2KEvent: Bitcoin above ___ on August 12?

99.5¢

YES

0.5¢

0.3¢

Spread

anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection13Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution85Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 54%

24h sample:30 trades$22.9K trackedsource coverage 17%BUY/SELL known 100%

tape 44 min agoofficial metadata 8 min ago

Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$8.0K@ 98¢·0x7b60…65a2

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN

What the tape says

YES pressure: +$3.0K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

+$3.0K

+$18.4K

tracked

$22.9K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?

0.3¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 54% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence

•Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
•Executable quote is 7 minutes old.
•Observed tape is 44 minutes old.
•Less than 4h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution

resolving

Trading

Orders accepted

Deadline

2026-08-12 16:00 UTC

Event constraint

Not verified

Resolution source: Not supplied by the market

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow

0xaa9a…3b3e2 linked markets · $21.9K gross

anon.1980.1232 linked markets · $20.2K gross

0x3e3d…d6742 linked markets · $13.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes

Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.

1h+$3.0K

6h+$18.4K

24h+$22.4K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.

Current99.5¢

VWAP 24h98.1¢▲ above by 1.3pp

VWAP 7d98.1¢

Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢

← now

$15.6K

90¢

$1.7K

85¢

80¢

75¢

70¢