Grodzisk Mazowiecki: Ivan Marrero vs Maks Kasnikowski

● quote 41 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $349.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $198.4KEvent: Grodzisk Mazowiecki: Ivan Marrero vs Maks Kasnikowski
100.0¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection3Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets63Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 67%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:32 trades$13.0K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 7%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 58 min agoofficial metadata 44 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $10.9K·2 wallets(1🐋)·$11.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMaks Kasnikowski (NO)$11.2K@ 97¢·swisstony

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$440
6h
−$9.8K
tracked
$13.0K

2 verified profitable wallets: −$10.9K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 67% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 41 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 58 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 44 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-13 09:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Ivan Marrero and Maks Kasnikowski in the Grodzisk Mazowiecki, originally scheduled for August 6, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Ivan Marrero' if Ivan Marrero advances against Maks Kasnikowski. This market will resolve to 'Maks Kasnikowski' if Maks Kasnikowski advances against Ivan Marrero. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: YES UP 2.7pp · near-book depth $63.2K$288 · 68s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.climax

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$440
6h$9.8K
24h$9.8K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h7.3¢▲ above by 92.7pp
VWAP 7d7.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$94
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$233
70¢
$347
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$2
45¢
$0
40¢
$4
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$99
20¢
$5
15¢
$2
10¢
$0
5¢
$1.0K
0¢
$11.2K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYMaks Kasnikowski (NO)$11.2K@ 96.7¢
swisstony0x204f…5e14
🐋about 3 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

swisstonyMaks Kasnikowski$11.2K
BUY VWAP 96.7¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.