CA Boca Juniors vs. Recoleta FC: O/U 2.5

● quote 1245 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 1 dayLiquidity: $95.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $243.4KEvent: CA Boca Juniors vs. Recoleta FC - More Markets
99.9¢
YES
1.0¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution29Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 61%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:61 trades$105.4K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 43%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 1304 min agoofficial metadata 1237 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$65.9K·2 wallets(1🐋)·$66.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYOver (YES)$26.2K@ 60¢·theowalcott

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$34.0K
tracked
$105.4K

2 verified profitable wallets: +$65.9K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 61% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 1245 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 1304 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 1237 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-11 22:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming Copa Sudamericana game between CA Boca Juniors and Recoleta FC, scheduled for August 11 at 6:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if CA Boca Juniors and Recoleta FC combine to score 3 or more goals in this game. If the combined total is less than 3, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. If the game is started but not completed, this market will resolve according to the official final score published on conmebol.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
theowalcott2 linked markets · $94.4K gross
0x2a69…d2f72 linked markets · $28.5K gross
0x9e3e…f8822 linked markets · $5.4K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ACCUMULATIONBUY Over@ 62.0¢1d ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE
DEADLINE POSITIONINGBUY Over@ 63.0¢1d ago
15m INVALIDATED -3.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Over@ 63.0¢1d ago
15m INVALIDATED -3.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: YES UP 7.0pp · near-book depth $2.4K$415 · 32s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$0
6h+$34.0K
24h+$34.0K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h63.2¢▲ above by 36.7pp
VWAP 7d63.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$7.9K
90¢
$0
85¢
$11
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$246
65¢
$0
60¢
$62.5K
55¢
$34.7K
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYOver (YES)$26.2K@ 60.2¢
theowalcott0x7ad7…42aa
🐋1 day ago
BUYOver (YES)$14.2K@ 59.6¢
theowalcott0x7ad7…42aa
🐋1 day ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

theowalcottOver$65.9K
BUY VWAP 59.9¢·7 fills
0x2a69…d2f7Under$13.6K
BUY VWAP 39.9¢·6 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.