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Paris Saint-Germain vs. Manchester United: O/U 1.5

● quote 6250 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 5 daysLiquidity: $82.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $103.2KEvent: Paris Saint-Germain vs. Manchester United - More Markets
99.9¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets66Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution27Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 66%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$44.0K·2 wallets·$44.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYOver (YES)$17.4K@ 90¢·0xcc32…92d2

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$60.7K
tracked
$65.6K

2 verified profitable wallets: +$44.0K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 66% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Only 0 tracked trades / 8 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Executable quote is 6250 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 6361 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-08 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.flashscore.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming Club Friendlies game between Paris Saint-Germain and Manchester United, scheduled for August 8 at 11:00 AM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if Paris Saint-Germain and Manchester United combine to score 2 or more goals in this game. If the combined total is less than 2, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. If the game is started but not completed, this market will resolve according to the official final score published on flashscore.com. This market will settle based on the final score of the match, regardless of format (e.g. two halves totaling 90 minutes plus stoppage time, or four periods totaling 120 minutes). The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
swisstony2 linked markets · $44.1K gross
0xcc32…92d22 linked markets · $22.7K gross
RN12 linked markets · $7.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Over5d ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Over@ 88.0¢5d ago
15m CONFIRMED +8.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$0
6h+$60.7K
24h+$60.7K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h96.9¢▲ above by 3.0pp
VWAP 7d96.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$46.4K
90¢
$105
85¢
$19.1K
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYOver (YES)$17.4K@ 89.7¢0xcc32…92d2🐋—5 days ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

swisstonyOver$44.1K
BUY VWAP 99.9¢·17 fills
0xcc32…92d2Over$17.4K
BUY VWAP 89.7¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.