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Will TSG Hoffenheim win on 2026-08-16?

● quote 244 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $5.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $116.9KEvent: Tottenham Hotspur vs. TSG Hoffenheim
13.5¢
YES
86.5¢
NO
3.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution56Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 63%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:93 trades$58.4K trackedsource coverage 50%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 701 min agoofficial metadata 244 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$3.5K@ 90¢·0x5652…00c9

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$58.4K

1 verified profitable wallet: −$27.2K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
3.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 63% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 244 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 701 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 244 minutes old.
  • •Less than 4h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-16 12:00 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: https://www.flashscore.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming game, scheduled for August 16, 2026 If TSG Hoffenheim wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market will settle based on the final score of the match, regardless of format (e.g. two halves totaling 90 minutes plus stoppage time, or four periods totaling 120 minutes). The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

DEADLINE POSITIONINGBUY NO@ 95.0¢16h ago
15m INVALIDATED -15.0pp1h INVALIDATED -10.0pp6h INVALIDATED -10.0pp
CONFIRMED BUILDBUY NO@ 93.0¢16h ago
15m INVALIDATED -15.0pp1h INVALIDATED -14.0pp6h INVALIDATED -7.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 94.0¢16h ago
15m INVALIDATED -16.0pp1h INVALIDATED -15.0pp6h INVALIDATED -8.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 90.0¢16h ago
15m INVALIDATED -12.0pp1h INVALIDATED -11.0pp6h INVALIDATED -4.0pp
Latest book event: NO DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $186 → $829 · 17s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$0
6h+$0
24h−$58.4K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current13.5¢
VWAP 24h9.7¢▲ above by 3.8pp
VWAP 7d9.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$8
10¢
← now
$45.2K
5¢
$8.9K
0¢
$4.4K

VPOC = 10¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

swisstonyNo$27.2K
BUY VWAP 90.0¢·20 fills
GoalLineGhostNo$15.4K
BUY VWAP 90.2¢·8 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.