CA Banfield vs. CA Belgrano: O/U 1.5

● quote 2794 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 2 daysLiquidity: $142.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $112.5KEvent: CA Banfield vs. CA Belgrano - More Markets
99.9¢
YES
1.0¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets64Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 60%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$27.4K·2 wallets(1🐋)·$28.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYOver (YES)$14.9K@ 62¢·theowalcott

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — MARKET STATUS RISK
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$218
6h
+$18.2K
tracked
$44.6K

2 verified profitable wallets: +$27.4K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 60% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Only 0 tracked trades / 40 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • Executable quote is 2794 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 2844 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-08-10 22:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming Primera División Argentina game between CA Banfield and CA Belgrano, scheduled for August 10 at 6:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if CA Banfield and CA Belgrano combine to score 2 or more goals in this game. If the combined total is less than 2, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. If the game is started but not completed, this market will resolve according to the official final score published on afa.com.ar. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Recent definition/status changes
RESOLUTION STATUS CHANGED · 2d ago
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 2d ago

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

DEADLINE POSITIONINGBUY Over@ 64.0¢2d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h INVALIDATED -14.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Over@ 64.0¢2d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h INVALIDATED -14.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$218
6h+$18.2K
24h+$18.2K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h67.1¢▲ above by 32.8pp
VWAP 7d67.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$5.9K
90¢
$0
85¢
$2
80¢
$296
75¢
$0
70¢
$274
65¢
$48
60¢
$36.5K
55¢
$26
50¢
$246
45¢
$746
40¢
$489
35¢
$16
30¢
$66
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYOver (YES)$14.9K@ 62.4¢
theowalcott0x7ad7…42aa
🐋2 days ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

theowalcottOver$27.8K
BUY VWAP 62.7¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.