Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-2.5)

● quote 4250 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 3 daysLiquidity: $52.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $224.2KEvent: Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Académico de Viseu FC - More Markets
4.0¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets61Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution22Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 60%💡 5 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $30.6K·5 wallets(1🐋)·$50.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAcadémico de Viseu FC (NO)$21.0K@ 52¢·theowalcott

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$14.4K
tracked
$93.2K

5 verified profitable wallets: −$30.6K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 60% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Only 0 tracked trades / 62 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • Executable quote is 4250 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 4386 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 4240 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-09 19:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ligaportugal.pt/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming Primeira Liga game, scheduled for August 9 at 3:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Sport Lisboa e Benfica" if Sport Lisboa e Benfica win the game by 3 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Académico de Viseu FC". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on ligaportugal.pt. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
RN12 linked markets · $3.5K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

DEADLINE POSITIONINGBUY Académico de Viseu FC@ 55.0¢3d ago
15m INVALIDATED -36.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Académico de Viseu FC@ 55.0¢3d ago
15m INVALIDATED -36.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$0
6h$14.4K
24h$14.4K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current4.0¢
VWAP 24h34.0¢▼ below by 30.0pp
VWAP 7d34.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$101
55¢
$12
50¢
$2
45¢
$62.6K
40¢
$2.4K
35¢
$1
30¢
$0
25¢
$3.6K
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$1.1K
0¢
← now
$23.5K

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYAcadémico de Viseu FC (NO)$21.0K@ 52.4¢
theowalcott0x7ad7…42aa
🐋3 days ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

theowalcottAcadémico de Viseu FC$30.8K
BUY VWAP 52.9¢·3 fills
0xc3ed…9f79Académico de Viseu FC$12.0K
BUY VWAP 51.7¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.