National Bank Open: Daria Kasatkina vs Elena Rybakina

● quote 139 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 8 daysLiquidity: $434.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $333.0KEvent: National Bank Open: Daria Kasatkina vs Elena Rybakina
12.5¢
YES
87.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection13Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority53Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 68%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:51 trades$35.7K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 11%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 147 min agoofficial metadata 143 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYElena Rybakina (NO)$30.0K@ 86¢·0xdbbb…05a8

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$4.6K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$4.6K
6h
−$35.3K
tracked
$35.7K

1 verified profitable wallet: −$326 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 68% · priority 53

Since latest large flow: +2.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 139 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 147 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 143 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
climax
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-13 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Daria Kasatkina and Elena Rybakina in the National Bank Open, originally scheduled for August 6, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Daria Kasatkina' if Daria Kasatkina advances against Elena Rybakina. This market will resolve to 'Elena Rybakina' if Elena Rybakina advances against Daria Kasatkina. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Elena Rybakina@ 86.0¢5h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h CONFIRMED +3.0pp
Latest book event: NO UP 4.0pp · near-book depth $373$8.7K · 32s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.climax

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$4.6K
6h$35.3K
24h$35.3K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current12.5¢
VWAP 24h12.7¢▼ below by 0.2pp
VWAP 7d12.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$179
10¢
← now
$30.7K
5¢
$841
0¢
$4.0K

VPOC = 10¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYElena Rybakina (NO)$30.0K@ 86.0¢0xdbbb…05a8🐋about 5 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xdbbb…05a8Elena Rybakina$30.0K
BUY VWAP 86.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.