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National Bank Open: Juncheng Shang vs Andrey Rublev

● quote 2840 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 5 daysLiquidity: $231.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.5MEvent: National Bank Open: Juncheng Shang vs Andrey Rublev
99.9¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection3Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets61Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 51%💡 8 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$2.5K·8 wallets·$4.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAndrey Rublev (NO)$18.6K@ 77¢·0F62

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$1.7K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$1.7K
6h
−$6.4K
tracked
$59.2K

8 verified profitable wallets: +$2.5K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 51% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Only 0 tracked trades / 217 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Executable quote is 2840 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 2868 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-11 18:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Juncheng Shang and Andrey Rublev in the National Bank Open, originally scheduled for August 4, 2026 at 2:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Juncheng Shang' if Juncheng Shang advances against Andrey Rublev. This market will resolve to 'Andrey Rublev' if Andrey Rublev advances against Juncheng Shang. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Andrey Rublev@ 77.0¢3d ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp24h UNAVAILABLE

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$1.7K
6h−$6.4K
24h−$28.6K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h27.2¢▲ above by 72.7pp
VWAP 7d27.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$34
90¢
$0
85¢
$1.3K
80¢
$15
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$1.5K
60¢
$498
55¢
$335
50¢
$637
45¢
$3.3K
40¢
$376
35¢
$235
30¢
$911
25¢
$3.2K
20¢
$44.5K
15¢
$324
10¢
$233
5¢
$748
0¢
$1.0K

VPOC = 20¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYAndrey Rublev (NO)$18.6K@ 77.0¢
0F620xccd8…f4de
🐋—3 days ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0F62Andrey Rublev$22.0K
BUY VWAP 76.8¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.