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National Bank Open: Rebecca Sramkova vs Diana Shnaider

● quote 32s ago
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $505.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $407.5KEvent: National Bank Open: Rebecca Sramkova vs Diana Shnaider
0.1¢
YES
100.0¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection4Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets99Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 69%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:102 trades$60.0K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 15%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 6 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $4.0K·3 wallets·$4.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYDiana Shnaider (NO)$25.6K@ 76¢·tennischamp

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$2.5K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$2.5K
6h
−$53.0K
tracked
$60.0K

3 verified profitable wallets: −$4.0K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 69% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +21.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 21.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-11 16:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Rebecca Sramkova and Diana Shnaider in the National Bank Open, originally scheduled for August 4, 2026 at 12:30PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Rebecca Sramkova' if Rebecca Sramkova advances against Diana Shnaider. This market will resolve to 'Diana Shnaider' if Diana Shnaider advances against Rebecca Sramkova. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Diana Shnaider1h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Diana Shnaider@ 79.0¢2h ago
15m CONFIRMED +14.0pp1h INVALIDATED -7.0pp
Latest book event: YES DOWN 3.0pp · near-book depth $31.2K → $8.2K · 16s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$2.5K
6h−$53.0K
24h−$53.0K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h23.4¢▼ below by 23.4pp
VWAP 7d23.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$24
30¢
$1.4K
25¢
$21.4K
20¢
$30.6K
15¢
$153
10¢
$5.0K
5¢
$1.1K
0¢
← now
$278

VPOC = 20¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYDiana Shnaider (NO)$21.1K@ 74.0¢
tennischamp0x8bfe…2d74
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYDiana Shnaider (NO)$25.6K@ 75.8¢
tennischamp0x8bfe…2d74
🐋—about 2 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

tennischampDiana Shnaider$46.7K
BUY VWAP 75.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.