National Bank Open: Maja Chwalinska vs Talia Gibson

● quote 67 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $475.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $98.1KEvent: National Bank Open: Maja Chwalinska vs Talia Gibson
43.5¢
YES
56.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection23Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority56Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:35 trades$5.2K trackedsource coverage 5%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 72 min agoofficial metadata 72 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMaja Chwalinska (YES)$3.1K@ 39¢·0xa4fd…748b

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$1.2K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$1.2K
6h
+$1.2K
tracked
$5.2K

1 verified profitable wallet: −$46 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 76% · priority 56

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 67 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 72 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 72 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-11 18:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Maja Chwalinska and Talia Gibson in the National Bank Open, originally scheduled for August 4, 2026 at 2:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Maja Chwalinska' if Maja Chwalinska advances against Talia Gibson. This market will resolve to 'Talia Gibson' if Talia Gibson advances against Maja Chwalinska. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: YES DOWN 3.0pp · near-book depth $49.3K$28.1K · 15s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$1.2K
6h+$1.2K
24h+$1.2K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current43.5¢
VWAP 24h41.6¢▲ above by 1.9pp
VWAP 7d41.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$103
45¢
$1.7K
40¢
← now
$43
35¢
$3.4K
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity