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National Bank Open: Sara Bejlek vs Iga Swiatek

● quote 3127 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 5 daysLiquidity: $356.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $468.2KEvent: National Bank Open: Sara Bejlek vs Iga Swiatek
0.8¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly99Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 52%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYIga Swiatek (NO)$16.2K@ 89¢·0F62

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$27
6h
−$32.3K
tracked
$33.4K

1 verified profitable wallet: −$154 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 52% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Only 0 tracked trades / 33 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Executable quote is 3127 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 3159 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-11 16:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Sara Bejlek and Iga Swiatek in the National Bank Open, originally scheduled for August 4, 2026 at 12:30PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Sara Bejlek' if Sara Bejlek advances against Iga Swiatek. This market will resolve to 'Iga Swiatek' if Iga Swiatek advances against Sara Bejlek. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Iga Swiatek@ 93.0¢2d ago
15m CONFIRMED +3.4pp1h STALLED +3.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.climax

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$27
6h−$32.3K
24h−$32.3K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.8¢
VWAP 24h6.8¢▼ below by 6.0pp
VWAP 7d6.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$16.3K
5¢
$1.5K
0¢
← now
$15.6K

VPOC = 10¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYIga Swiatek (NO)$16.2K@ 89.0¢
0F620xccd8…f4de
🐋—2 days ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0F62Iga Swiatek$16.2K
BUY VWAP 89.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.