Valorant: Natus Vincere vs Joblife - Map 1 Winner

● quote 35 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $200.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $140.2KEvent: Valorant: Natus Vincere vs Joblife (BO3) - VCT EMEA Play-Ins
0.1¢
YES
100.0¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 52%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:23 trades$13.6K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 10%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 108 min agoofficial metadata 40 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNatus Vincere (YES)$13.1K@ 63¢·esportGG

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$12.9K
tracked
$13.6K

1 verified profitable wallet: +$13.1K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 52% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 35 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 108 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 40 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-07 00:20 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://vlr.gg
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Valorant Upper bracket round 1 match between Natus Vincere and Joblife in the VCT EMEA Play-Ins, initially scheduled for August 6 at 2:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win Map 1 against Joblife. This market will resolve to "Joblife" if Joblife win Map 1 against Natus Vincere. If the match begins but is not completed, and Map 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Map 1. If Map 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://vlr.gg. However, if https://vlr.gg has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
esportGG2 linked markets · $35.5K gross
0x86df…d9022 linked markets · $645 gross
0x9c4b…8a812 linked markets · $441 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: YES DOWN 4.5pp · near-book depth $0 → $1 · 21s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$0
6h+$12.9K
24h+$12.9K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h62.6¢▼ below by 62.5pp
VWAP 7d62.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$13.2K
55¢
$72
50¢
$277
45¢
$21
40¢
$14
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$10
5¢
$24
0¢
← now
$0

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYNatus Vincere (YES)$13.1K@ 63.0¢
esportGG0xf070…ac55
🐋—about 3 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Valorant: Natus Vincere vs Joblife (BO3) - VCT EMEA Play-Ins
72.5¢$290.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Valorant: Natus Vincere vs Joblife - Map 2 Winner
100.0¢$109.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

esportGGNatus Vincere$13.1K
BUY VWAP 63.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.