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Counter-Strike: MOUZ NXT vs Misa Esports (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #2 Group D

● quote 133 min ago
Sports→Closes: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $121.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $303.1KEvent: Counter-Strike: MOUZ NXT vs Misa Esports (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #2 Group D
100.0¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly18Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 66%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:134 trades$7.4K trackedsource coverage 2%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 149 min agoofficial metadata 138 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMOUZ NXT (YES)$1.8K@ 67¢·0x9c03…522d

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$39
6h
+$3.0K
tracked
$7.4K

1 verified profitable wallet: +$143 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 66% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 133 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 149 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 138 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-03 19:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Decider match between MOUZ NXT and Misa Esports in the ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #2 Group D, initially scheduled for August 3 at 9:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "MOUZ NXT" if MOUZ NXT win the match against Misa Esports. This market will resolve to "Misa Esports" if Misa Esports win the match against MOUZ NXT. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: NO DOWN 24.5pp · near-book depth $3 → $1 · 13s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$39
6h+$3.0K
24h+$3.0K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h63.8¢▲ above by 36.1pp
VWAP 7d63.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$484
90¢
$0
85¢
$157
80¢
$200
75¢
$561
70¢
$1.1K
65¢
$2.9K
60¢
$35
55¢
$0
50¢
$35
45¢
$16
40¢
$730
35¢
$800
30¢
$194
25¢
$220
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 65¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.