UFC 330: Vicente Luque vs. Tresean Gore (Middleweight, Early Prelims)

● quote 647 min ago
Sports→Closes: about 7 hoursLiquidity: $144.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $732.6KEvent: UFC 330: Vicente Luque vs. Tresean Gore (Middleweight, Early Prelims)
50.0¢
YES
50.0¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection2Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority52Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 86%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:263 trades$263.5K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 42%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 651 min agoofficial metadata 644 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$110·2 wallets·$6.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLTresean Gore (NO)$41.8K@ 100¢·0x3dfb…abaf

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$6.1K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$6.1K
6h
+$46.9K
tracked
$263.5K

2 verified profitable wallets: +$110 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 86% · priority 52

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 647 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 651 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 644 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-16 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Vicente Luque" if Vicente Luque is officially declared the winner of the fight against Tresean Gore at UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry, scheduled for August 15, 2026. It will resolve to "Tresean Gore" if Tresean Gore is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 29, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ACCUMULATIONBUY Vicente Luque@ 51.0¢11h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE
ANTI CHASEBUY Vicente Luque11h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Vicente Luque@ 51.0¢12h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Vicente Luque@ 51.0¢14h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: NO DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $739 → $453 · 2s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$6.1K
6h+$46.9K
24h+$39.9K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current50.0¢
VWAP 24h29.5¢▲ above by 20.5pp
VWAP 7d33.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$1.0K
80¢
$1.6K
75¢
$1.8K
70¢
$423
65¢
$135
60¢
$21
55¢
$2.1K
50¢
← now
$139.4K
45¢
$46.6K
40¢
$0
35¢
$1.0K
30¢
$1.8K
25¢
$1.5K
20¢
$0
15¢
$6.2K
10¢
$32.4K
5¢
$10.5K
0¢
$74.3K

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLTresean Gore (NO)$41.8K@ 99.9¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋—about 11 hours ago
BUYTresean Gore (NO)$12.2K@ 51.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋—about 12 hours ago
BUYVicente Luque (YES)$25.5K@ 51.0¢
Winnnnnnning0x533c…2658
🐋—about 12 hours ago
BUYVicente Luque (YES)$25.5K@ 51.0¢
Winnnnnnning0x533c…2658
🐋—about 15 hours ago
BUYTresean Gore (NO)$12.4K@ 50.0¢0xd6c9…396d🐋—about 16 hours ago
SELLTresean Gore (NO)$10.5K@ 50.0¢
Winnnnnnning0x533c…2658
🐋—3 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

WinnnnnnningVicente Luque$56.6K
BUY VWAP 50.9¢·3 fills
0x3dfb…abafTresean Gore$21.3K
BUY VWAP 51.0¢·2 fills
WinnnnnnningTresean Gore$15.5K
BUY VWAP 51.4¢·3 fills
0xd6c9…396dTresean Gore$12.4K
BUY VWAP 50.0¢·1 fill
0x656a…6077Tresean Gore$12.1K
BUY VWAP 50.0¢·5 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.