UFC 330: Mackenzie Dern vs. Gillian Robertson (Women's Strawweight, Main Card)

● quote 277 min ago
SportsCloses: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $210.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $2.3MEvent: UFC 330: Mackenzie Dern vs. Gillian Robertson (Women's Strawweight, Main Card)
99.9¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection18Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets52Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 82%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:267 trades$1.6M tracked8% 🐋source coverage 67%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 284 min agoofficial metadata 273 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$344.7K·2 wallets(2🐋)·$444.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMackenzie Dern (YES)$333.5K@ 65¢·0x2c33…0563

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$278.0K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$278.0K
6h
+$626.0K
tracked
$1.6M

2 verified profitable wallets: +$344.7K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 82% · priority 0

Since latest deadline positioning: +11.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 277 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 284 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 273 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-16 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Mackenzie Dern" if Mackenzie Dern is officially declared the winner of the fight against Gillian Robertson at UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry, scheduled for August 15, 2026. It will resolve to "Gillian Robertson" if Gillian Robertson is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 29, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xe911…3d4e2 linked markets · $15.1K gross
0x99b1…196a2 linked markets · $477 gross
0xc785…4ef22 linked markets · $222 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

DEADLINE POSITIONINGBUY Mackenzie Dern@ 89.0¢4h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE
ACCUMULATIONBUY Mackenzie Dern@ 64.0¢5h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Mackenzie Dern@ 72.0¢5h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Mackenzie Dern@ 90.0¢5h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: YES UP 4.5pp · near-book depth $44.2K$11.9K · 6s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$278.0K
6h+$626.0K
24h+$637.0K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h76.0¢▲ above by 23.9pp
VWAP 7d75.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$396.9K
90¢
$101.6K
85¢
$40.2K
80¢
$682
75¢
$2.7K
70¢
$1.8K
65¢
$595.1K
60¢
$453.4K
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 65¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLMackenzie Dern (YES)$259.7K@ 99.9¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋about 5 hours ago
SELLMackenzie Dern (YES)$18.9K@ 99.9¢0x5d9b…a5eb🐋about 5 hours ago
SELLMackenzie Dern (YES)$45.7K@ 99.9¢
tennischamp0x8bfe…2d74
🐋about 5 hours ago
BUYMackenzie Dern (YES)$15.6K@ 99.9¢0x2037…473d🐋about 5 hours ago
SELLMackenzie Dern (YES)$10.5K@ 98.0¢0x9e7a…1eec🐋about 5 hours ago
BUYMackenzie Dern (YES)$10.0K@ 93.5¢0x9e7a…1eec🐋about 5 hours ago
BUYMackenzie Dern (YES)$46.7K@ 91.0¢0xe558…dcd2🐋about 5 hours ago
BUYMackenzie Dern (YES)$27.4K@ 89.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋about 5 hours ago
BUYMackenzie Dern (YES)$20.4K@ 91.0¢
tennischamp0x8bfe…2d74
🐋about 5 hours ago
BUYMackenzie Dern (YES)$333.5K@ 65.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋about 5 hours ago
BUYMackenzie Dern (YES)$24.4K@ 65.0¢0xd6c9…396d🐋about 6 hours ago
BUYMackenzie Dern (YES)$65.0K@ 65.0¢
sleepy-panda0xa49b…4c40
🐋about 6 hours ago
BUYMackenzie Dern (YES)$38.4K@ 65.0¢
Painfulvoid0xd696…8a49
🐋about 6 hours ago
BUYMackenzie Dern (YES)$119.1K@ 64.0¢
Sassy-Bucket0x4bff…fc26
🐋about 6 hours ago
BUYMackenzie Dern (YES)$57.6K@ 64.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋about 6 hours ago
BUYMackenzie Dern (YES)$51.2K@ 64.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋about 6 hours ago
SELLMackenzie Dern (YES)$44.1K@ 63.0¢
Winnnnnnning0x533c…2658
🐋about 6 hours ago
BUYMackenzie Dern (YES)$19.2K@ 64.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋about 6 hours ago
BUYMackenzie Dern (YES)$38.4K@ 64.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋about 7 hours ago
BUYMackenzie Dern (YES)$32.0K@ 64.0¢
Winnnnnnning0x533c…2658
🐋about 9 hours ago
BUYGillian Robertson (NO)$11.7K@ 36.0¢
BreakTheBank0xf031…c80c
🐋about 10 hours ago
SELLGillian Robertson (NO)$13.0K@ 35.0¢
Winnnnnnning0x533c…2658
🐋about 12 hours ago
BUYMackenzie Dern (YES)$10.7K@ 64.0¢
Painfulvoid0xd696…8a49
🐋2 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x2c33…0563Mackenzie Dern$360.9K
BUY VWAP 66.4¢·2 fills
0x3dfb…abafMackenzie Dern$166.4K
BUY VWAP 64.0¢·4 fills
Sassy-BucketMackenzie Dern$119.1K
BUY VWAP 64.0¢·1 fill
sleepy-pandaMackenzie Dern$65.0K
BUY VWAP 65.0¢·1 fill
PainfulvoidMackenzie Dern$53.0K
BUY VWAP 64.8¢·3 fills
0xe558…dcd2Mackenzie Dern$46.7K
BUY VWAP 91.0¢·1 fill
WinnnnnnningMackenzie Dern$46.1K
BUY VWAP 64.5¢·4 fills
tennischampMackenzie Dern$33.5K
BUY VWAP 80.2¢·4 fills
0xd6c9…396dMackenzie Dern$24.4K
BUY VWAP 65.0¢·1 fill
0xa38a…821dMackenzie Dern$18.7K
BUY VWAP 65.4¢·8 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.