Mubadala Citi DC Open: Jessica Pegula vs Alexandra Eala

● quote 54 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $363.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $895.3KEvent: Mubadala Citi DC Open: Jessica Pegula vs Alexandra Eala
74.5¢
YES
25.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection23Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority65Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 78%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:96 trades$122.4K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 14%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 58 min agoofficial metadata 54 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$10.6K·2 wallets(1🐋)·$10.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYJessica Pegula (YES)$61.7K@ 61¢·beachboy4

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$28.7K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$28.7K
6h
+$91.0K
tracked
$122.4K

2 verified profitable wallets: +$10.6K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 78% · priority 65

Since latest position change: +12.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 54 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 58 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 54 minutes old.
  • Executable BUY price moved 12.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-09 21:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Jessica Pegula and Alexandra Eala in the Mubadala Citi DC Open, originally scheduled for August 2, 2026 at 5:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Jessica Pegula' if Jessica Pegula advances against Alexandra Eala. This market will resolve to 'Alexandra Eala' if Alexandra Eala advances against Jessica Pegula. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

POSITION CHANGEBUY Jessica Pegula@ 63.0¢59m ago
Outcome checks pending
POSITION CHANGEBUY Jessica Pegula@ 64.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp
POSITION CHANGEBUY Jessica Pegula@ 62.0¢4h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Jessica Pegula@ 61.0¢5h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h STALLED +1.0pp

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$28.7K
6h+$91.0K
24h+$101.7K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current74.5¢
VWAP 24h61.4¢▲ above by 13.1pp
VWAP 7d61.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
← now
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$73.6K
55¢
$15.6K
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYJessica Pegula (YES)$61.7K@ 60.5¢
beachboy40xc2e7…be51
🐋about 5 hours ago
BUYJessica Pegula (YES)$10.6K@ 59.8¢
SineNooneEI0x3833…33d1
🐋about 11 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

beachboy4Jessica Pegula$61.7K
BUY VWAP 60.5¢·1 fill
SineNooneEIJessica Pegula$10.6K
BUY VWAP 59.8¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.