Athletics vs. Boston Red Sox

● quote 184 min ago
SportsCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $521.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $730.8KEvent: Athletics vs. Boston Red Sox
0.4¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets99Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 55%💡 7 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:143 trades$156.7K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 21%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 242 min agoofficial metadata 174 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $12.8K·7 wallets·$12.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYBoston Red Sox (NO)$40.5K@ 71¢·texaskid

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$107.6K
tracked
$156.7K

7 verified profitable wallets: −$12.8K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 55% · priority 0

Since latest confirmed build: +6.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 184 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 242 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 174 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-14 23:10 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Athletics and Boston Red Sox, scheduled for August 7 at 7:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "Athletics" if the Athletics win the game. This market will resolve to "Boston Red Sox" if the Boston Red Sox win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x2b46…684d2 linked markets · $15.0K gross
0xe8c4…395d2 linked markets · $3.9K gross
0x5268…135d2 linked markets · $2.3K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

CONFIRMED BUILDBUY Boston Red Sox@ 94.0¢5h ago
15m CONFIRMED +3.2pp1h CONFIRMED +5.2pp
ANTI CHASEBUY Boston Red Sox5h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Boston Red Sox@ 74.0¢6h ago
15m CONFIRMED +22.1pp1h CONFIRMED +25.3pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Boston Red Sox@ 72.0¢7h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: NO UP 2.5pp · near-book depth $89.7K$1.1K · 56s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$0
6h$107.6K
24h$146.2K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.4¢
VWAP 24h23.7¢▼ below by 23.3pp
VWAP 7d23.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$5
25¢
$117.7K
20¢
$137
15¢
$0
10¢
$28.5K
5¢
$12
0¢
← now
$10.4K

VPOC = 25¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYBoston Red Sox (NO)$32.3K@ 74.0¢0xa1ed…fa68🐋about 6 hours ago
BUYBoston Red Sox (NO)$40.5K@ 71.0¢
texaskid0xc807…c12b
🐋about 9 hours ago
BUYBoston Red Sox (NO)$38.3K@ 71.0¢
maz260x6754…e3bc
🐋about 10 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

texaskidBoston Red Sox$40.5K
BUY VWAP 71.0¢·1 fill
maz26Boston Red Sox$38.3K
BUY VWAP 71.0¢·1 fill
0xa1ed…fa68Boston Red Sox$32.3K
BUY VWAP 74.0¢·1 fill
0x2b46…684dBoston Red Sox$14.9K
BUY VWAP 90.9¢·5 fills
RN1Boston Red Sox$10.8K
BUY VWAP 87.0¢·7 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.