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SE Palmeiras vs. Club Cerro Porteño: O/U 2.5

● quote just now
UncategorizedCloses: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $118.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $99.3KEvent: SE Palmeiras vs. Club Cerro Porteño - More Markets
5.3¢
YES
94.7¢
NO
1.4¢
Spread
anomaly28Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets23Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 73%💡 5 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:26 trades$31.5K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 32%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 6 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$4.4K·5 wallets(1🐋)·$18.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYOver (YES)$10.1K@ 47¢·WTSA

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$263
6h
−$4.1K
tracked
$31.5K

5 verified profitable wallets: +$4.4K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.4¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 73% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-12 22:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://conmebollibertadores.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming Copa Libertadores game between SE Palmeiras and Club Cerro Porteño, scheduled for August 12 at 6:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if SE Palmeiras and Club Cerro Porteño combine to score 3 or more goals in this game. If the combined total is less than 3, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. If the game is started but not completed, this market will resolve according to the official final score published on conmebollibertadores.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
WTSA2 linked markets · $39.2K gross
0x2a69…d2f72 linked markets · $37.2K gross
swisstony3 linked markets · $9.9K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: YES DOWN 4.5pp · near-book depth $0 → $0 · 3s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$263
6h−$4.1K
24h−$8.4K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current5.3¢
VWAP 24h45.3¢▼ below by 40.0pp
VWAP 7d45.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$27.5K
40¢
$3.7K
35¢
$0
30¢
$67
25¢
$0
20¢
$2
15¢
$0
10¢
$200
5¢
← now
$0
0¢
$61

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYOver (YES)$10.1K@ 46.7¢
WTSA0x04d5…66d8
🐋—about 3 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

WTSAOver$11.1K
BUY VWAP 46.7¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.