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Spread: SE Palmeiras (-1.5)

● quote just now
UncategorizedCloses: about 1 hourLiquidity: $5.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $252.0KEvent: SE Palmeiras vs. Club Cerro Porteño - More Markets
38.5¢
YES
61.5¢
NO
5.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection3Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets83Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution63Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 61%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:45 trades$110.7K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 44%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 43 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$26.4K·4 wallets(1🐋)·$31.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYSE Palmeiras (YES)$22.6K@ 51¢·WTSA

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$3.5K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$3.5K
6h
−$15.0K
tracked
$110.7K

4 verified profitable wallets: +$26.4K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
5.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 61% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: -10.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 43 minutes old.
  • •Spread is 5.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-12 22:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://conmebollibertadores.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming Copa Libertadores game, scheduled for August 12 at 6:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "SE Palmeiras" if SE Palmeiras win the game by 2 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Club Cerro Porteño". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on conmebollibertadores.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
WTSA2 linked markets · $39.2K gross
0x2a69…d2f72 linked markets · $37.0K gross
RN12 linked markets · $5.3K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY SE Palmeiras@ 51.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h INVALIDATED -10.0pp
DEADLINE POSITIONINGBUY SE Palmeiras@ 51.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h INVALIDATED -10.0pp
DEADLINE POSITIONINGBUY Club Cerro Porteño@ 50.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h CONFIRMED +6.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Club Cerro Porteño@ 55.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -6.0pp1h INVALIDATED -4.0pp
Latest book event: NO UP 11.0pp · near-book depth $3.9K → $30 · 100s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$3.5K
6h−$15.0K
24h−$15.0K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current38.5¢
VWAP 24h49.2¢▼ below by 10.7pp
VWAP 7d49.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$60.1K
45¢
$49.5K
40¢
$1.1K
35¢
← now
$21
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYSE Palmeiras (YES)$22.6K@ 50.7¢
WTSA0x04d5…66d8
🐋—about 2 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x2a69…d2f7Club Cerro Porteño$29.7K
BUY VWAP 51.4¢·7 fills
WTSASE Palmeiras$28.0K
BUY VWAP 50.1¢·2 fills
0x4956…e2c7Club Cerro Porteño$24.5K
BUY VWAP 49.8¢·4 fills
0x4956…e2c7SE Palmeiras$11.1K
BUY VWAP 46.6¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.