Canadian Open: Jaume Munar vs Rinky Hijikata

● quote 75 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 8 daysLiquidity: $263.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $320.3KEvent: Canadian Open: Jaume Munar vs Rinky Hijikata
87.5¢
YES
12.5¢
NO
3.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection2Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution86Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 65%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:75 trades$4.6K trackedsource coverage 1%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 83 min agoofficial metadata 80 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$240·4 wallets·$240 gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYJaume Munar (YES)$1.6K@ 80¢·0x6485…a265

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$109
6h
+$2.1K
tracked
$4.6K

4 verified profitable wallets: +$240 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
3.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 65% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Tracked source coverage is only 1%.
  • Executable quote is 75 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 83 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 80 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-10 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Jaume Munar and Rinky Hijikata in the Canadian Open, originally scheduled for August 3, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Jaume Munar' if Jaume Munar advances against Rinky Hijikata. This market will resolve to 'Rinky Hijikata' if Rinky Hijikata advances against Jaume Munar. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: YES UP 2.5pp · near-book depth $35.0K$20.8K · 29s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$109
6h+$2.1K
24h+$2.1K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current87.5¢
VWAP 24h79.7¢▲ above by 7.9pp
VWAP 7d79.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$763
85¢
← now
$132
80¢
$3.0K
75¢
$108
70¢
$144
65¢
$150
60¢
$47
55¢
$7
50¢
$0
45¢
$150
40¢
$0
35¢
$74
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 80¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity