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National Bank Open: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Venus Williams

● quote 24s ago
UncategorizedCloses: 8 daysLiquidity: $298.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $202.0KEvent: National Bank Open: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Venus Williams
100.0¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection7Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 71%
24h sample:42 trades$48.4K tracked7% 🐋source coverage 24%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 13 min agoofficial metadata 13s ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYKamilla Rakhimova (YES)$17.1K@ 69¢·0xbb5f…2e21

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$3.4K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$3.4K
6h
+$41.1K
tracked
$48.4K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 71% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +8.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 13 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-10 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Kamilla Rakhimova and Venus Williams in the National Bank Open, originally scheduled for August 3, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Kamilla Rakhimova' if Kamilla Rakhimova advances against Venus Williams. This market will resolve to 'Venus Williams' if Venus Williams advances against Kamilla Rakhimova. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Kamilla Rakhimova@ 92.0¢56m ago
15m STALLED +1.1pp
Latest book event: NO DOWN 3.5pp · near-book depth $10.2K → $2.6K · 53s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$3.4K
6h+$41.1K
24h+$41.1K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h69.5¢▲ above by 30.4pp
VWAP 7d69.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$3.6K
90¢
$48
85¢
$0
80¢
$250
75¢
$21
70¢
$356
65¢
$31.6K
60¢
$12.5K
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 65¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYKamilla Rakhimova (YES)$13.3K@ 68.0¢0xbb5f…2e21🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYKamilla Rakhimova (YES)$12.5K@ 63.0¢0xbb5f…2e21🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYKamilla Rakhimova (YES)$17.1K@ 69.0¢0xbb5f…2e21🐋—about 1 hour ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xbb5f…2e21Kamilla Rakhimova$42.9K
BUY VWAP 66.8¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.