Canadian Open, Qualification: Hugo Gaston vs Duncan Chan

● quote 4 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $232.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $219.7KEvent: Canadian Open, Qualification: Hugo Gaston vs Duncan Chan
0.1¢
YES
100.0¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection42Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:71 trades$93.0K tracked6% 🐋source coverage 42%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 21 min agoofficial metadata 8 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYDuncan Chan (NO)$39.9K@ 37¢·0x7d6d…2654

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$39.1K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$39.1K
6h
+$11.7K
tracked
$93.0K

1 verified profitable wallet: −$29 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 76% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +11.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Observed tape is 21 minutes old.
  • Executable BUY price moved 11.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-08 17:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Hugo Gaston and Duncan Chan in the Canadian Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for August 1, 2026 at 1:30PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Hugo Gaston' if Hugo Gaston advances against Duncan Chan. This market will resolve to 'Duncan Chan' if Duncan Chan advances against Hugo Gaston. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Duncan Chan@ 89.0¢37m ago
15m UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Hugo Gaston@ 13.0¢37m ago
15m UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: YES UP 5.0pp · near-book depth $9.1K$7.2K · 10s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$39.1K
6h+$11.7K
24h+$11.7K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h75.6¢▼ below by 75.6pp
VWAP 7d75.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$32.9K
85¢
$0
80¢
$1.5K
75¢
$16.4K
70¢
$132
65¢
$1.0K
60¢
$39.9K
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$31
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$199
10¢
$721
5¢
$45
0¢
← now
$188

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYDuncan Chan (NO)$39.9K@ 36.8¢0x7d6d…2654🐋about 1 hour ago
BUYHugo Gaston (YES)$18.0K@ 90.0¢0x5455…8b2a🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYHugo Gaston (YES)$14.6K@ 92.0¢0x5455…8b2a🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYHugo Gaston (YES)$15.9K@ 79.8¢0xff81…44c9🐋about 3 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x7d6d…2654Duncan Chan$39.9K
BUY VWAP 36.8¢·1 fill
0x5455…8b2aHugo Gaston$32.6K
BUY VWAP 90.9¢·2 fills
0xff81…44c9Hugo Gaston$15.9K
BUY VWAP 79.8¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.