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Canadian Open, Qualification: Jaime Faria vs Christopher O'Connell

● quote 19359 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $614.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $778.1KEvent: Canadian Open, Qualification: Jaime Faria vs Christopher O'Connell
3.0¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection4Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 71%
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYJaime Faria (YES)$50.0K@ 65¢·0x7d6d…2654

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$7.2K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$7.2K
6h
+$28.5K
tracked
$201.7K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 71% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Only 0 tracked trades / 73 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Executable quote is 19359 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 19371 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-08 17:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Jaime Faria and Christopher O'Connell in the Canadian Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for August 1, 2026 at 1:30PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Jaime Faria' if Jaime Faria advances against Christopher O'Connell. This market will resolve to 'Christopher O'Connell' if Christopher O'Connell advances against Jaime Faria. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Christopher OConnell13d ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Christopher OConnell@ 56.0¢13d ago
15m CONFIRMED +24.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Jaime Faria@ 46.0¢13d ago
15m INVALIDATED -30.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$7.2K
6h+$28.5K
24h+$28.5K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current3.0¢
VWAP 24h58.6¢▼ below by 55.6pp
VWAP 7d58.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$116
70¢
$0
65¢
$55.7K
60¢
$81.1K
55¢
$0
50¢
$13.5K
45¢
$32.1K
40¢
$10.9K
35¢
$349
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$217
15¢
$7.1K
10¢
$477
5¢
$1
0¢
← now
$86

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLChristopher OConnell (NO)$10.5K@ 59.3¢
911lover0x9e86…6dfb
🐋—14 days ago
BUYChristopher OConnell (NO)$10.3K@ 48.0¢
one8tyfive0xcf6c…7e66
🐋—14 days ago
BUYChristopher OConnell (NO)$10.0K@ 36.0¢0x5f65…2036🐋—14 days ago
BUYJaime Faria (YES)$50.0K@ 64.5¢0x7d6d…2654🐋—14 days ago
BUYChristopher OConnell (NO)$10.0K@ 37.7¢0x5f65…2036🐋—14 days ago
BUYJaime Faria (YES)$50.0K@ 67.8¢0x7d6d…2654🐋—14 days ago
BUYChristopher OConnell (NO)$11.0K@ 37.0¢0x5f65…2036🐋—14 days ago
BUYChristopher OConnell (NO)$29.0K@ 51.9¢0x5f65…2036🐋—14 days ago