Los Cabos Open: Cameron Norrie vs Denis Shapovalov

● quote 824 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $1.1MOfficial 24h Vol: $1.4MEvent: Los Cabos Open: Cameron Norrie vs Denis Shapovalov
1.0¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection23Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 63%💡 5 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:553 trades$73.3K trackedsource coverage 5%BUY/SELL known 93%
tape 838 min agoofficial metadata 826 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $6.3K·5 wallets·$9.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYDenis Shapovalov (NO)$14.2K@ 71¢·0x58d7…17e1

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$15.4K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$15.4K
6h
−$13.8K
tracked
$73.3K

5 verified profitable wallets: −$6.3K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 63% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 824 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 838 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 826 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-08 04:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Cameron Norrie and Denis Shapovalov in the Los Cabos Open, originally scheduled for August 1, 2026 at 12:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Cameron Norrie' if Cameron Norrie advances against Denis Shapovalov. This market will resolve to 'Denis Shapovalov' if Denis Shapovalov advances against Cameron Norrie. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

MARKET SWEEPBUY NO@ 93.0¢14h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: YES DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $108$327 · 2s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$15.4K
6h$13.8K
24h$13.8K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current1.0¢
VWAP 24h40.5¢▼ below by 39.5pp
VWAP 7d40.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$3.6K
60¢
$12.0K
55¢
$7.6K
50¢
$2.2K
45¢
$4.6K
40¢
$9.0K
35¢
$2.1K
30¢
$7.2K
25¢
$17.3K
20¢
$3.9K
15¢
$2.0K
10¢
$319
5¢
$1.4K
0¢
← now
$121

VPOC = 25¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYDenis Shapovalov (NO)$14.2K@ 71.0¢0x58d7…17e1🐋about 15 hours ago
BUYCameron Norrie (YES)$10.4K@ 60.4¢0xff81…44c9🐋about 18 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x58d7…17e1Denis Shapovalov$14.2K
BUY VWAP 71.0¢·1 fill
0xff81…44c9Cameron Norrie$10.4K
BUY VWAP 60.4¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.