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Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima

● quote 33 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $281.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $841.2KEvent: Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima
46.0¢
YES
54.0¢
NO
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection2Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets4Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 61%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:148 trades$42.2K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 5%BUY/SELL known 90%
tape 42 min agoofficial metadata 34 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $1·2 wallets·$10 gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYBrandon Nakashima (NO)$10.0K@ 41¢·0x5f65…2036

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$793
6h
−$19.5K
tracked
$42.2K

2 verified profitable wallets: $0 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 61% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +14.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 33 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 42 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 34 minutes old.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 14.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-07 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Alex de Minaur and Brandon Nakashima in the Mubadala Citi DC Open, originally scheduled for July 31, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alex de Minaur' if Alex de Minaur advances against Brandon Nakashima. This market will resolve to 'Brandon Nakashima' if Brandon Nakashima advances against Alex de Minaur. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Brandon Nakashima@ 41.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -22.0pp1h CONFIRMED +20.0pp
Latest book event: YES DOWN 3.0pp · near-book depth $60.7K → $31.9K · 18s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$793
6h−$19.5K
24h−$19.5K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current46.0¢
VWAP 24h52.7¢▼ below by 6.7pp
VWAP 7d52.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$745
75¢
$358
70¢
$54
65¢
$252
60¢
$9.2K
55¢
$11.1K
50¢
$713
45¢
← now
$159
40¢
$16.5K
35¢
$7
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$46
15¢
$207
10¢
$4
5¢
$52.9K
0¢
$7.7K

VPOC = 5¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYBrandon Nakashima (NO)$50.0K@ 92.5¢0xf837…bd42🐋—23 minutes ago
BUYBrandon Nakashima (NO)$10.0K@ 40.7¢0x5f65…2036🐋—about 2 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xf837…bd42Brandon Nakashima$50.0K
BUY VWAP 92.5¢·1 fill
0x5f65…2036Brandon Nakashima$19.0K
BUY VWAP 40.3¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.