Valorant: Karmine Corp vs Team Liquid (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Omega

● quote 34 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $98.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $197.6KEvent: Valorant: Karmine Corp vs Team Liquid (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Omega
89.0¢
YES
11.0¢
NO
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution92Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 68%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:55 trades$15.1K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 12%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 52 min agoofficial metadata 35 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYKarmine Corp (YES)$11.5K@ 46¢·skyman44

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$117
6h
+$320
tracked
$15.1K

1 verified profitable wallet: +$11.5K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 68% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 34 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 52 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 35 minutes old.
  • Less than 4h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-02 00:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://vlr.gg
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Valorant match between Karmine Corp and Team Liquid in the VCT EMEA Group Omega, initially scheduled for August 1 at 2:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Karmine Corp" if Karmine Corp win the match against Team Liquid. This market will resolve to "Team Liquid" if Team Liquid win the match against Karmine Corp. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://vlr.gg. However, if https://vlr.gg has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x86df…d9022 linked markets · $592 gross
0x775d…6beb2 linked markets · $81 gross
0x904e…0bec2 linked markets · $24 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: NO DOWN 5.0pp · near-book depth $4.8K$1.3K · 4s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$117
6h+$320
24h+$11.9K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current89.0¢
VWAP 24h47.2¢▲ above by 41.8pp
VWAP 7d47.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
← now
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$34
70¢
$138
65¢
$225
60¢
$159
55¢
$149
50¢
$134
45¢
$13.8K
40¢
$33
35¢
$425
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYKarmine Corp (YES)$11.5K@ 46.0¢
skyman440x30c7…ac3b
🐋about 14 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Valorant: Karmine Corp vs Team Liquid - Map 1 Winner
100.0¢$278.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

skyman44Karmine Corp$11.5K
BUY VWAP 46.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.