LoL: EDward Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner

● quote 45 min ago
SportsCloses: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $747.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $739.4KEvent: LoL: EDward Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend
0.1¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 52%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:179 trades$58.0K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 8%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 133 min agoofficial metadata 48 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTop Esports (NO)$24.4K@ 75¢·0x2c33…0563

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$17.7K
tracked
$58.0K

1 verified profitable wallet: −$24.4K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 52% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 45 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 133 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 48 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-05 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL match between EDward Gaming and Top Esports in the LPL Group Ascend, initially scheduled for August 5 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "EDward Gaming" if EDward Gaming win Game 2 against Top Esports. This market will resolve to "Top Esports" if Top Esports win Game 2 against EDward Gaming. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 2 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 2. If Game 2 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
StasPanda2 linked markets · $24.8K gross
0xcae6…4f852 linked markets · $9.5K gross
0xa849…2c982 linked markets · $6.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: NO DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $527$350 · 2s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$0
6h$17.7K
24h$17.7K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h21.6¢▼ below by 21.5pp
VWAP 7d21.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$25
55¢
$947
50¢
$217
45¢
$52
40¢
$862
35¢
$8.5K
30¢
$2.9K
25¢
$27.4K
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$227
5¢
$6.1K
0¢
← now
$10.8K

VPOC = 25¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYTop Esports (NO)$24.4K@ 75.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x2c33…0563Top Esports$24.4K
BUY VWAP 75.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.