Vancouver: Nao Hibino vs Mananchaya Sawangkaew

● quote 4287 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 4 daysLiquidity: $571.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $265.5KEvent: Vancouver: Nao Hibino vs Mananchaya Sawangkaew
8.0¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly40Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection100Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority59Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 83%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNao Hibino (YES)$24.4K@ 39¢·Eztennis

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$84.9K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$84.9K
6h
+$84.9K
tracked
$84.9K

1 verified profitable wallet: −$8 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 83% · priority 59

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Only 0 tracked trades / 6 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • Executable quote is 4287 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 4289 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 4289 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-05 17:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Nao Hibino and Mananchaya Sawangkaew in the Vancouver, originally scheduled for July 29, 2026 at 1:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Nao Hibino' if Nao Hibino advances against Mananchaya Sawangkaew. This market will resolve to 'Mananchaya Sawangkaew' if Mananchaya Sawangkaew advances against Nao Hibino. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Nao Hibino@ 0.1¢3d ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.climax

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$84.9K
6h+$84.9K
24h+$84.9K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current8.0¢
VWAP 24h39.3¢▼ below by 31.3pp
VWAP 7d39.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$22.7K
35¢
$41.0K
30¢
$20.8K
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
← now
$1
0¢
$474

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYNao Hibino (YES)$20.8K@ 34.8¢
Eztennis0x4be1…aa70
🐋3 days ago
BUYNao Hibino (YES)$16.6K@ 39.0¢
Eztennis0x4be1…aa70
🐋3 days ago
BUYNao Hibino (YES)$22.7K@ 45.0¢
Eztennis0x4be1…aa70
🐋3 days ago
BUYNao Hibino (YES)$24.4K@ 38.8¢
Eztennis0x4be1…aa70
🐋3 days ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

EztennisNao Hibino$84.4K
BUY VWAP 39.2¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.