Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Mariners

● quote 6 min ago
SportsCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $349.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $316.0KEvent: Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Mariners
0.3¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection2Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets20Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 69%💡 8 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:161 trades$45.0K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 14%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 25 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$331·8 wallets·$1.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYSeattle Mariners (NO)$29.0K@ 57¢·0x5e94…5ba1

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$940
6h
+$2.6K
tracked
$45.0K

8 verified profitable wallets: +$331 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 69% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +42.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 6 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 25 minutes old.
  • Executable BUY price moved 42.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-09 20:10 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Minnesota Twins and Seattle Mariners, scheduled for August 2 at 4:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "Minnesota Twins" if the Minnesota Twins win the game. This market will resolve to "Seattle Mariners" if the Seattle Mariners win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x5268…135d2 linked markets · $7.1K gross
0x56cc…d5892 linked markets · $16 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Seattle Mariners@ 58.0¢5h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
Latest book event: NO UP 4.8pp · near-book depth $45$67 · 1s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$940
6h+$2.6K
24h$26.4K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.3¢
VWAP 24h40.9¢▼ below by 40.6pp
VWAP 7d40.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$38
50¢
$10
45¢
$7
40¢
$41.0K
35¢
$1.1K
30¢
$265
25¢
$21
20¢
$79
15¢
$46
10¢
$2.0K
5¢
$185
0¢
← now
$347

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYSeattle Mariners (NO)$29.0K@ 57.0¢0x5e94…5ba1🐋about 6 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x5e94…5ba1Seattle Mariners$29.0K
BUY VWAP 57.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.