New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs

● quote 74 min ago
SportsCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $181.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $177.9KEvent: New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs
76.5¢
YES
23.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection4Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 69%💡 5 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:82 trades$26.6K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 15%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 82 min agoofficial metadata 74 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$21.3K·5 wallets(1🐋)·$21.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNew York Yankees (YES)$21.3K@ 55¢·0x3dfb…abaf

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$943
6h
+$575
tracked
$26.6K

5 verified profitable wallets: +$21.3K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 69% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 74 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 82 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 74 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-09 18:20 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the New York Yankees and Chicago Cubs, scheduled for August 2 at 2:20PM ET: This market will resolve to "New York Yankees" if the New York Yankees win the game. This market will resolve to "Chicago Cubs" if the Chicago Cubs win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY New York Yankees@ 56.0¢7h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp
Latest book event: NO UP 5.5pp · near-book depth $679$338 · 1s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$943
6h+$575
24h+$19.0K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current76.5¢
VWAP 24h55.4¢▲ above by 21.1pp
VWAP 7d55.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
← now
$322
70¢
$119
65¢
$251
60¢
$83
55¢
$24.9K
50¢
$922
45¢
$39
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYNew York Yankees (YES)$21.3K@ 55.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋about 12 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x3dfb…abafNew York Yankees$21.3K
BUY VWAP 55.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.