Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds

● quote 73 min ago
SportsCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $173.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $277.4KEvent: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds
4.8¢
YES
95.3¢
NO
0.3¢
Spread
anomaly3Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution97Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 69%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:33 trades$42.9K tracked6% 🐋source coverage 15%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 92 min agoofficial metadata 78 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYPittsburgh Pirates (YES)$22.5K@ 42¢·ferrariChampions2026

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$21
6h
+$3.1K
tracked
$42.9K

1 verified profitable wallet: +$22.5K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.3¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 69% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +39.4pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 73 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 92 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 78 minutes old.
  • Executable BUY price moved 39.4pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-09 17:40 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Cincinnati Reds, scheduled for August 2 at 1:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "Pittsburgh Pirates" if the Pittsburgh Pirates win the game. This market will resolve to "Cincinnati Reds" if the Cincinnati Reds win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Cincinnati Reds@ 56.0¢4h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Pittsburgh Pirates@ 45.0¢4h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
Latest book event: NO UP 4.0pp · near-book depth $2$1.2K · 4s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$21
6h+$3.1K
24h+$3.1K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current4.8¢
VWAP 24h42.3¢▼ below by 37.6pp
VWAP 7d42.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$110
40¢
$42.5K
35¢
$0
30¢
$46
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$227
10¢
$13
5¢
$27
0¢
← now
$4

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYCincinnati Reds (NO)$19.6K@ 57.0¢0xfe54…41d6🐋about 5 hours ago
BUYPittsburgh Pirates (YES)$22.5K@ 42.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋about 6 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

LoL: Fnatic vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner
0.1¢$741.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: Fnatic vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner
100.0¢$697.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner
52.5¢$673.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - Games of the Future Playoffs
0.1¢$536.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros
29.5¢$384.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres
45.5¢$361.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Toronto Blue Jays
55.5¢$360.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals?
5.5¢$344.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

ferrariChampions2026Pittsburgh Pirates$22.5K
BUY VWAP 42.0¢·1 fill
0xfe54…41d6Cincinnati Reds$19.6K
BUY VWAP 57.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.